Next Bear Market Bottom

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Subject:	No more Long-term Growth Cycle left for America—Re: Fun With Guessing- Bottom of the Secular Bear/Economy
Date:	Tue, 13 Apr 2010 08:34:11 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Kevin (highlighted by Jas): "Fun With Guessing- Bottom of the Secular Bear/Economy --  After reading a bit on longer term cycles, including the effects of political cycles, mortgage resets, etc., I would guess that the next big bear market will bottom somewhere between 2013 and 2016. Re-election of Obama will increase this probability. The real economy should bottom sometime within 1-3 years after that.

I am guessing we get some shaky performance between late 2010 and early 2012, at which time the incumbent party will try to ramp up economic and market performance again. After 2012, again, especially if the incumbent administration is re-elected, watch out for the real issues to surface.

I see the stock market and maybe more importantly, the real estate market to bottom between 2013 and 2020; more likely prior to 2016. After all of that, the economy will have cleared this mess, and another long term growth cycle can begin.

I am still looking for a stock market sell signal, but have not gotten a good one yet."

There is no more long-term growth cycle left for America. Americans have cashed out the future growth and sold it to the Chinese and the rest. That is what a quintessential born-and-bred American dope like Warren Buffett can't understand. Buffett should have retired at 68! America's days as the top dog are numbered in Chinese.
Jas

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