Thursday, January 17, 2013

Currency Targets: Euro & Aussie Dollar


Asian Markets at a Glance
China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan etc.


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: How Over-Valued Are Currencies?
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2013 07:16:53 -0800
From: Jas Jain


How Over-Valued Are Currencies?


The most important thing to know about the FX market is that it is driven by speculators and its existence has the same purchase as the stock market in the US has had since mid-1990s—to allow Crooks to make lot of money, e.g., Crooks like George Soros. Currency manipulation by central banks and govts is a common thing, but Americans and many others blame only one country, China.


The US dollar is under-valued against most currencies, including Euro (it is an unannounced policy of the US govt and the Fed, an attempt at correcting the trade deficit when the real problem is over consumption and federal deficit spending, the #1 cause of dollar under-valuation). However, Euro is not as over-valued against the USD as are some other currencies, e.g., Aussie Dollar (AUD) and Swiss franc (SF). Attached is a chart of the three currencies mentioned for the past dozen years. These currencies bottomed during 2000Q4-2001Q1 and now AUD and SF are roughly at twice the level they were at the bottom. Of course, SF put a blow-off top during August 2011, but is still very much over-valued against to currencies that are very important for the Swiss economy, Euro and USD.


In order to get some idea where these currencies might be heading let us look at a very long-tern chart of the dollar index (DXY). The current behavior is similar to early 1990s when it made the final bottom in 1995 before a break out in 1997 and it made a top in late 2000, going up some 55%. The next trigger for a big move up in dollar would be the next financial crisis in one of the major economies, or economic zone.

My targets for the three currencies are:

AUD  $0.60

Euro  $1.10

SF     $0.80

In a global depression, AUD could go as low as $0.40. It would be bad for all commodity currencies. I would start accumulating a big short position in AUD, which has a limited upside and huge down side (down and under!).

Jas

Gold ETF:  GLD Price & Charts

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Editorial: How Does the System of the Crooks Operate In America and Why Worry About It?



-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Editorial: How Does the System of the Crooks Operate In America and Why Worry About It?
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2013 12:19:26 -0800
From: Jas Jain

January 16, 2013

Editorial: How Does the System of the Crooks Operate In America and Why Worry About It?

Early in the morning, I watched an interview on Bloomberg with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who just became a voting member on FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, but it is more of a Foul Open Mouth Committee because these days they talk on TV lot more than they deliberate in the meeting, i.e., they are in propaganda business). Bill Cohan (that is the correct spelling according to Bloomberg), who had worked on Wall Street before the Crisis of 2008 and these days he is a Bloomberg commentator after writing a book on the Crisis, was infuriated after the interview because "all that the Fed is doing is enriching the banks." (Rosengren being the most supportive of Fed doing more QE, i.e., he is left of the left interventionist). In 2008, the Federal govt saved the banks and after that Federal Reserve has been enriching the banks and Mr. Cohan can't believe that this is allowed to go on. This is because Mr. Cohan doesn't understand the American system and why Rosengren was chosen to be the Boston Fed President. (By far the biggest beneficiaries of the federal govt and Fed policies have been big businesses, in general, and big banks, in particular. The proof is in the pudding—Goldman Sachs earnings, announced this morning, hit the ball out of the park).

Mr. Rosengren claimed that Fed has helped the economy and can help more (lot more if only FOMC listened to Mr. Rosengren fully and ignored the rest because he knows exactly how the help flows thru the economy and the job market via housing, etc.). Few months back Bernanke claimed that Fed policy was responsible for creating 2M jobs. We know for a fact that these people are lying and making false claims about the Fed helping the economy in creating jobs. What evidence do I have? Did Bernanke and Rosengren tell us when and how the Fed policy was hurting the economy? Did they even know?? Or, were they lying, or hiding the truth, by virtue of not warning about the potential threats to the economy that were obvious to many during 2006 and 2007??? The biggest Bernanke lie that I remember is that during a testimony to the Congress in March 2007, few months prior to the housing market crash, he was asked about the threat to the US economy posed by housing prices falling, something many were expecting and talking about publicly, and Bernanke replied that prices may fall in few areas but nationwide the housing prices would not fall and only the rise in housing prices would come down to 3-5% annual rate. Was that a lie or is the guy that clueless? In either case he should not have been able to keep his job, but people don't know what his real job is. There is no conspiracy; it is all in the open.

Before the 2012 elections, Obama and his economic handlers were claiming that their policy has created 5M jobs. GW Bush claimed that his policies were responsible for the "strong economy" before the bottom fell out and no body was blamed for it. Let me get this right. All these people who produce nothing of value, lie whenever necessary, never have to worry about feeding their family and paying bills for the rest of their lives (they are set for life once they get these positions) are the ones helping the economy. So, who all are hurting the American economy? Honest Americans who have to work to feed their family and worry about paying their bills and have been burdened with a large future bill. The top politicians and Fed appointees have the jobs that they do precisely because they lie to the public and make false promises and claims about their own actions. They have one and only one responsibility—to support the System of the Crooks.

How and When the System of the Crooks Became a Dominant Force In America?

When Reagan, who was persuaded to enter politics by some wealthy individuals, who knew Reagan's ability to sell to the public during his tenure as a pitchman for GE, to have govt serve their interests with much more vigor and guard their interests zealously, fired Paul Volcker and hired Greenspan, who could be relied upon to serve the interests of the wealthy who over time became Crooks when many forms of financial fraud were legalized and financial manipulation, including the stock market, became the primary source of wealth. During Greenspan's 18.5 years tenure the System of the Crooks became firmly established. Ben Bernanke was brought to the Fed in 2002 by GW Bush specifically to continue and support the System of the Crooks. Federal Reserve and SEC became the guardians of the System of the Crooks and the job of the politicians then became appointing those who can be fully relied upon to serve the system. As a SEC Chairman, no one did more than Arthur Levitt, Jr. Crooks became filthy rich under Greenspan-Levitt-Bernanke financial regime. The proof is in the pudding. It is not a secret as to what policies are good for the Crooks. Heck, I know what policies are good for the Crooks. Question is one of identifying immoral men of high enough intelligence who would execute the policies and politicians who are good at selling to the public. The people and entities most responsible for the System of the Crooks are: Ronald Reagan, Alan Greenspan, Arthur Levitt, Jr., Larry Summers, GW Bush, Ben Bernanke, Goldman Sachs (Robert Rubin, Hank Paulson), Federal Reserve and SEC.

Why Worry About It?

Now, I am going to say something that born-and-bred Americans are not going to like, but is a fact of utmost importance. Americans are bred to be totally ignorant of the possibility of a political shock to the American system. Political shocks have been the norm in all the leading nations of the world all thru history and specifically since 1750 (just to pick a date after which North America became very relevant in terms of political shocks). The biggest political shock since 1750 was the French Revolution, the leading enabler of the popular democracies in the world today. We have seen big political shocks in Germany and Russia since 1914. I would even include the American Civil War as a political shock, but not as big as the others mentioned. America is ripe for a political shock that would exceed the French Revolution in terms of the changing political landscape all throughout the world for decades and centuries to come. Some of the conditions that were present in France, Germany and Russia during their biggest political shocks are present in America today, but the German example, after the world plunged into the Great Depression, is more relevant than the others. The trigger for America would also be the global Greater Depression that is only few years away. During the Great Depression America's financial situation was very strong while Germany' was very bad. Today, America's financial situation is very bad. People like Paul Krugman tell us that this is nothing to worry about and people like him are appointed to Federal Reserve. Building debt, especially the federal debt, is very good for the Crooks! Crooks have done far better than the rest during the debt build up of 2001-2012. I know it and so do most policymakers that only debt is keeping things going. When no more debt can be pushed, the economy would collapse. We don't know what would be the exact trigger; it could be internal or external.

The System of the Crooks is driving America towards a political shock that would shock the whole world. The biggest casualty would be South Asia where govts financial situation is very bad and law and order is much weaker than in America. Globalization is about global contagion.

Be Safe!

Jas
and


Friday, January 11, 2013

Why do people think economists are charlatans?


SPY Adjusted For Dividends At Another Record High
As ECRI's WLI Hits A 74-Week High


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: FWC: Why do people think economists are charlatans?
Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2013 09:21:11 -0800
From: Jas Jain


FWC: Why do people think economists are charlatans?

Economists who comment in the broad media like to talk a lot about themselves. Since 2008 there have been many questions in their minds about the "profession." Of course, whatever negatives are raised all get explained away and they get back to their real job—Propaganda.


Years ago there was a survey of students in various disciplines and those who were pursuing economics were found to be the most dishonest. One of the reasons is that those who failed to get in medicine, dentistry, law, science, math, etc., end up taking economics as a profession that might pay well, especially, if one were given opportunities in the media. To succeed in economics one does not need produce anything of value. One can selectively massage data and pretty much come to any desired conclusion. Other times one can simply make a hypothetical assertion about a policy without any evidence in the real world. I was very disappointed when my e-friend Sabri claimed that he is right because many like-minded economists agree with him. Authority of someone whose ideas have been critiqued and survived for hundred years is one thing but Johnny come lately have come up with many bogus theories to justify their political leaning.

It should come as no surprise that those bred in the culture of deception, fraud, and manipulation have tremendous advantage in being successful in economics as it applies to govt polices, including the Federal Reserve policies.

Jas



Rise and Fall of Yen in 1990s - Bar Chart Data


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Rise and Fall of Yen in 1990s
Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2013 08:41:11 -0800
From: Jas Jain

Rise and Fall of Yen in 1990s

A friend asked about the rapid decline of Yen recently. Currencies do this kind of stuff at times. Attached is a chart of Yes during a period of rapid rise during 1992-93 and rapid decline during 1995.

Jas

Average annual gain of the DOW / DJIA

Inflation Protection: CRBQ - GLDTIP - VIPSX

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Scam Market Is Where It Was 9 Months Ago



-------- Original Message --------
Subject: The Scam Market Is Where It Was 9 Months Ago
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2013 10:30:21 -0800
From: Jas Jain


The Scam Market Is Where It Was 9 Months Ago

I use a weighted average of NDX and SPX (COMB) to reflect my short positions. It is nearly unchanged over the past 9 months (see the attached graph). Lot of opportunities in selling out-of-the-money options in a sideways market with volatility.To protect against large downside moves I always keep a portfolio of long-term (Jan'2015) puts.

Jas





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