Two Cuts then the Drop Says Jas Jain

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Stock Market Update: S&P 499 and NASDAQ-99 Peaked 15 Months Ago
Date:	Sat, 19 Oct 2019 16:49:22 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

MSFT has 4.2% weight in S&P 500 and 8.12% in NASDAQ-100. All the gain and more in these two major indexes for the past 15 months are due to 35% gain in MSFT. All the gains in DJI, S&P 500, and NASDAQ-100for the past 21 months have been due to four stocks, $MAGA.

It is safe to say that the Trump Bull Market ended more than a year ago. The Trump economy has slowed down to below 2% growth rate. If we see two more Fed rate cuts then the recession would follow shortly after that.

Jas

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June 25, 2019 1:12 PM

 

Stock Market Had Become a One-Trick Pony and That Pony Is Now Balking

 

 MSFT highhandedly carried S&P 500 to a marginal new high adding 250 points of gain to the index this year alone. Approximately 10% of the gain in S&P 500 this year was due to MSFT, an amazing pony that raced to exhaustion. That pony today refuses to carry the weight and move forward.

 

Broad market peaked 17 months ago and four $MAGA stocks, or a 4-mule wagon, kept the market from entering bear market. One by one these mules, or ponies, balked until only one was left carrying the load in 2019. Three of these $MAGA stocks hit the trillion dollar market cap; first, Apple, then Amazon, and recently Microsoft. It has proven to be the kiss of death.

 

Fed rate cut is coming soooooooooon and that might prove to be Coup de grâce. Hoping that Trump would be able to save the market and the economy is fanciful dreaming, or dopey thinking.

 

History Rhyming

 

In 2000, three stocks, CSCO, MSFT, and INTC, hit market cap close to $600B and that proved to be the kiss of death for the three stocks and the market. Market caps of CSCO and INTC now are $250B and $210B, respectively, and MSFT has backed off the $1Tr mark. Even MSFT, the most successful of the three, has significantly under-performed the long-term US Treasuries since the market peak in 2000! Recommending US Treasuries to those addicted to stocks is a bad idea.

My long-standing target of 500 for S&P 500 would be realized in the next few years. Only a small % of people who have been in stocks for the past 25 years will get out of stocks with any gain. Those who make offerings to the Crooks deserve their just rewards.

Jas

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Jas Jain on Indian Economy

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Re: Indian Economy
Date:	Mon, 16 Sep 2019 23:56:27 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

In addition to auto sales mentioned by my very smart nephew (appended), here are some other indicators that I have seen on business news channels:

 

1. Oil consumption down, YoY, for the first time.

 

2. Indian banks carrying the worst ratio of bad loans.

 

3. CPI is falling.

 

4. GDP growth rate is declining much more rapidly than China.

 

When, not if, the global depression begins Indian economy and political system would fair far worse than any other major economy. The debt situation in India is horrible and India is very dependent on foreign capital flows.

Jas

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From: Gaju (My Nephew)
Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2019 4:55 AM
Subject: Indian economy

 

I read your email subjecting Great Depression and Recession.

Indian economy is also going through a tough time. Sales of automobiles has fallen down consecutively for 9th month and total fall in sale of automobile is 30%. I am pretty sure the figures are correct because we manufacture Ferro Silicon when is an input in automobile industry. Initially we faced fall in prices then followed by fallen demand with fallen prices and now we see that many automobile companies have taken a shut down for month long. Another classical example is of the Parle-G company who has warned government of firing 10000 Labour if government fails to do necessary correction in the taxation.

What's your opinion about Indian economy. 

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Jas Jain Predicts S&P 500 below 500 by 2023

Market Update for 8/12/19

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Message of the US Treasury Bond Market and Fed Rate Cuts to Come -- Re: Fed Policy & Recessions
Date:	Mon, 12 Aug 2019 20:06:35 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

Message of the US Treasury Bond Market and Fed Rate Cuts to Come

That the Trump Global Depression is on track. The most important thing to know about the Donald and his son-in-law is that they are both born-and-bred financial fraudsters. My mantra to a small group of people has been: Donald, the Destroyer, Will Deliver!

My record in bond market investment is second to none in the world. Finally, the stock market will follow my long-term bearish forecast with S&P 500 below 500 by 2023.

Jas

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May 21, 2019

Fed Policy & Recessions

After the economy has been in a recovery for some years Federal Reserve starts a process of three-step strangle:

Step 1: Starts to raise the Fed Funds Rate because the economy is doing great and would continue to do great as far as the eye can see.

Step 2: Stops to raise the rates. Before the last two recessions this happened 9-16 month before the recessions began. The peak rate remains flat for several months.

Step 3: Starts cutting the rate. Before the last two recessions this happened 3-6 month before the recessions began. This is as close to Fed ringing the warning bells, or fire alarm for the stock market bulls to leave the casino as we can expect.

Where Are We Today?

Step 2 occurred in December 2018 when the last rate rise took place and Fed later announced that it would not raise the rates any time soon. How about Step 3 or when would Fed start cutting the rate?

"The market is pricing in about a 48% chance of a rate cut by September and a 73% chance of a move lower before the end of the year. In fact, traders see a 31% chance of two cuts before 2019 comes to an end."

So, based on history and market expectations of a rate cut Fed would ring the warning bells this year and the next recession would begin during the first half of 2020.

Another sure warning sign for a recession to come is that the stock market has peaked. I leave that to the reader. Trump Recession 2020 is a near certainty. We would be able to say bye-bye to the Donald in 2021.

Jas

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Taking forecasts with a grain of sand, read Jas Jain's 2002 Bear Market Model

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A decent correction can't end until Jas tells us 

1. how smart he is when the market is off its highs - Check!
   and
2. how the market will crash a lot more..... Check!

Your mileage may vary....