August Reading

The markets continue to make new highs while reports say many or most individual investors are not participating.  They missed my memos (newsletter and Seeking Alpha articles) that explained how you should buy assets located right under Ben Bernanke's helicopter. 

• Subscribe NOW and get the August 2013 Issue of "Kirk's Investment Letter" for FREE!!

Here are some of my recent articles to read:

Aug 13 Timer Digest's Top Stock Market Timers:
Kirk's Investment Letter in First Place!
Aug 13 Timer Digest's Top Bond Market Timers
Kirk's Investment Letter in First Place!

Aug 08 European Stocks Making New Post-Financial-Crisis Highs
Aug 07 NanoViricides Soaring on Recent News
Aug 06 FNSR Finisar Soars After Hours on Strong Guidance
Aug 01 Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESI vs S&P500 Update
July 31 Dow Jones Industrial Average Adjusted For Inflation - Historical Graph
July 26  SPY Makes New Record High While ECRI's WLI At 119-Week High
July 21 NASDAQ Composite: Kirk's Irrational Exuberance and Pessimism Trend Lines


best regards
Kirk Lindstrom
http://kirklindstrom.com/

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Jas Jain Indian Rupee (INR) Views

Stock Market Graphs at a Glance
Click links to see
 Americas -  Asia/Pacific -  Europe  - Africa/Middle East 

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	My Views On Indian Rupee (INR)
Date:	Wed, 28 Aug 2013 07:21:27 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

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My Views On Indian Rupee (INR)

Indian Rupee is in the news these days. Appended are two posts on INR, one recently and one exchange with Sabri from last year. Sabri's recent view is, "I think rupee will cross 65, but by how much, difficult to guess." I don't play the game of 60, 65, 70, etc., because INR is headed to cross 100 once the Indian economy enters a recession to be followed by a depression. Recessions and depressions are inherent features of American-style finance capitalism whose secret sauce is to push consumption based on debt.

The most important thing to understand about India is that it is not an independent nation while China is. Changes in the American monetary policy affect India far more than it would affect China. India is lot more vulnerable to internal as well as external economic problems. India would be the first major casualty of bad American economic theory.

Jas

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June 2013

Stupid Move by RBI to Defend the Indian Rupee (INR) at 60 to USD

Despite all the claims by America's politicians, Federal Reserve has been manipulating the currency (USD) by keeping it too low against the basket of currencies and the rotten currencies outside the basket that includes the INR. The most overvalued currency among the basket of currencies still remains the Swissie (CHF), but currencies like INR are worthless except for the local usage in a sewer economy (a criminalized econo-political system) that the Indian economy really is. It is the hot money, foreign "investment," speculative capital from foreigners, that has kept the rupee high for the past several years.

Looks like RBI is unable to hold the line at 60. INR at 80 might be close to fair value, but currencies never stop at fair value when a directional move is underway. I have no clue as to when but in not too distant a future INR would slide thru the 100 level like a warm knife thru the butter.

Jas

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May 2012

Re: Currency Restrictions and More--RE: RBI 'measures' on rupee

Sabri: "Hey, I live in Mumbai and work at the RBI. But then, they do what they do without consulting with me. They have to take full measures, not such partial measures. They still don't have the guts to do such things, so this is what happens. I told them that they should expect 60 rupees per $1, if it goes like that. Don't know if they believed me."

Hello Sabri,

No one is stupid enough to listen to anyone who is long the US Treasury bonds and bullish on the US dollar at the current level. At 60 INR to a USD, the rupee would still be overvalued. Govt people, especially the central bankers, want "orderly" adjustments in the economy and markets when things are out of kilter. These control freaks want to show their authority. They want people to believe that they are in-charge. They want controlled free markets! They want controlled free markets! India's choices are extremely limited and the poor decision makers at RBI just want to keep their jobs. All politicians want to keep their jobs as long as they legally can.

Jas

Charts of Historical CD Rates

Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis

Timer Digest's Top Stock Market Timers:
Kirk's Investment Letter in First Place!

Timer Digest's Top Bond Market Timers:
Kirk's Investment Letter in First Place!

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis
Date:	Tue, 27 Aug 2013 15:24:00 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

-->

Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis

The following, in black, is from a speech Ms Yell-en gave in July 2008, six months after the recession began and two months before the Crisis hit. My responses are in dark blue. It is a complete lie that no one knew or could have known in July 2008 as to what was likely to happen.

http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/yellen-speeches/2008/july/yellen-risks-prospects-us-economy-san-diego/

Outlook
"Now I'd like to pull all of these threads together to give you my outlook for the economy. Activity has been weak since late last year, and, given the three shocks I've discussed, I expect the economy to grow only modestly for the remainder of the year, but to pick up next year."

The actual GDP (Annual Rate):

2008Q3	-3.66%
2008Q4	-8.89%
2009Q1	-5.25%
2008Q2	-0.31%

"The earlier policy easing by the Federal Reserve will help cushion the economy from some of the effects of the shocks, and the fiscal stimulus program is helping at present. Over time, the drag from housing will wane and credit conditions should improve.
"On the inflation front, the predominant problem so far has been soaring food and energy prices. Headline inflation is likely to remain much higher than I would like over the next few quarters."

Headline inflation rate, YoY, collapsed over the nest 15 months.

Aug-08	5.37
Sep-08	4.94
Oct-08	3.66
Nov-08	1.07
Dec-08	0.09
Jan-09	0.03
Feb-09	0.24
Mar-09	0.38
Apr-09	0.74
May-09	1.28
Jun-09	1.43
Jul-09	2.10
Aug-09	1.48
Sep-09	1.29
Oct-09	0.18

"My best guess, which could easily be wrong, is that, consistent with futures prices, commodity prices will level off and cease to put direct upward pressure on headline inflation."

Commodity prices, especially the crude oil, collapsed.
She is a clueless bimbo who does and says what Crooks want people at the Fed to do and say. Fed is there to serve the Crooks and she is a reliable agent of the Crooks. The proof is in the pudding. Guess who dominate the ranks of the Crooks in America?
Jas

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"Core inflation has been better contained, but has still been running a bit higher than I would like. In the next few quarters, I wouldn't be surprised if it runs modestly higher, as businesses pass some of their higher energy and transportation costs on to customers.

"By early next year, however, I expect that, assuming commodity prices level off, core as well as headline inflation will moderate, as more slack in labor and product markets emerges."

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