US Housing Peaked

When did US housing prices peak?  (Or have they peaked?)

Jas Jain gives his answer for DEMAND below.

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Subject:	The US Housing Peaked at the End of 2015Q2
Date:	Sat, 30 Jan 2016 08:37:42 -0800
From:	Jas Jain <jas_jain

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The US Housing Peaked at the End of 2015Q2

The home ownership rate for the US as a whole have been declining for the past ten years.

Vacancy rates, rental as well as homeowner, peaked 5 years ago and had been declining up to 2015Q2 and now they are both back on the rise. For the year as a whole there are more vacant units at the end of 2015 compared with the end of 2014. This according to the latest report released last week.

Total vacant Units peaked in 2009Q1, the same time the the US scam market bottomed. The total vacant units bottomed in 2015Q2, the same time that the US scam market peaked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jas

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From Los Altos Real Estate - Home prices gain another 15.7% in 2015

FWIW, back in 1998 and 1999when homes in Los Altos were "only" worth $750,000 to $1,000,000 Jas Jain told me I should cash out because the stock market would crash (Nasdaq to 400) and my home would sell for $250,000.   Well, he had the digits close... but it passed through $2.5M without going any lower.

• See  Los Altos, Los Altos Real Estate, Real Estate

So, if you predict, predict often!

Ken Rogoff on Debt Super Cycle

Read 

• Jan 14 Sentiment Charts Reaching Blood In The Street Levels With SPY Down 11%
• Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards
• New Series I Bonds Offer Attractive Rates
• 2016 Social Security COLA: Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2016
  

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Ken Rogoff: "We Are In the MIDDLE of the Debt Super Cycle"
Date:	Wed, 20 Jan 2016 07:58:17 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

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Ken Rogoff: "We Are In the MIDDLE of the Debt Super Cycle"

He was being interviewed by Bloomberg in Davos.

He said that it started in the US, then moved to Europe and then to the emerging markets. I fully agree and it can only end in a global deflationary depression. Of course, China is the mother of the debt bubble right now. Rogoff said that he is very worried about China. For the past two years, my time window for the global depression to begin has been 2016-18.

It is the debt, stupid!

Jas

Louis Navellier - S&P 500 "Triple Bottom" Last Friday

Excerpts from a Louis Navellier email titled "The S&P 500 Reached a "Triple Bottom" Last Friday"

• Make sure you read "2016 Social Security COLA"
  If the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2016 and stays low, Jas may be right about rates.
  

My "guess" is Jas Jain would not agree with this conclusion.

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	The S&P 500 Reached a "Triple Bottom" Last Friday
Date:	Wed, 20 Jan 2016 08:05:08 -0500 (EST)
From:	Navellier and Associates <marketmail@navellier.com>

All content in this Introduction to Marketmail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

The S&P 500 Reached a "Triple Bottom" Last Friday

Last Friday, the S&P 500 essentially tested its August 24th low on high trading volume; so we finally got the panic "capitulation" day that typically marks decisive stock market bottoms. I for one can tell you that I was putting new money into the stock market by funding my 2016 SEP and adding money to a family partnership Friday, because the stock market appears to be grossly oversold, as signaled by a "triple bottom," which was created by market lows set in mid-October 2014, August 24, 2015, and January 15, 2016.
 
The way High Frequency Trading (HFT) systems work, what is down today is likely to be up tomorrow; so the herky-jerky market action we've been seeing on a daily basis will likely persist. The fact that Friday was a capitulation day on high trading volume, aided by an option expiration day, gives me hope that we'll see a big bounce early in this holiday-shortened week; so be prepared for more daily gyrations, thanks to HFT. In addition, the S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.3% is now well above the 10-year Treasury bond (below 2%, intraday).

However, before we get too excited, theaverage energy stock now trades at 28.7 times trailing earnings, and their forecasted earnings are truly horrific. A while ago, my company published a white paper, warning investors to stay away from these stocks. The ETF industry is basically causing this excess valuation for energy companies with negative sales and earnings. Specifically, I've seen a wave of ETF "pop up" buttons lately, advertising ETFs with yields over 4%. The only problem is that to get that 4% dividend yield, the ETF industry has to buy a lot of multinational and commodity-related stocks that are characterized by negative sales and earnings. As a result, the tail (i.e., dividend yield) is wagging the dog.
 
Not surprisingly, energy stocks now dominate the "F"-rated stocks in our Navellier DividendGrader and PortfolioGrader services. In my opinion, it is futile to chase high-dividend stocks via ETFs since you are setting yourself up for persistent principal erosion, regardless of the dividend yield. In other words, while the S&P 500's generous dividend yield is putting a good foundation under the overall stock market, some of the highest dividend offerings are becoming dangerous, due to the ongoing woes in the energy sector.

Read

• Jan 14 Sentiment Charts Reaching Blood In The Street Levels With SPY Down 11%
• Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards
• New Series I Bonds Offer Attractive Rates
• 2016 Social Security COLA: Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2016