October Reading

Articles for October:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Adjusted For Inflation Historical Chart
• S&P500 PE & CAPE History - Price to Earnings Ratio - Historical PE Ratios
• FB Facebook Stock Share Lock-up Expiration Timetable
• Facebook: Dan Niles Now Long After Covering His Short Position
• Stock Markets vs. Federal Funds Rate

Great Links to bookmark

• US Treasury Rates at a Glance 
  
• World Stock Markets at a Glance
• Best Savings Account Rate Survey 
• Historical Mortgage Rates 
  

 best regards Kirk Lindstrom

 http://kirklindstrom.com/

Japan vs US Depression Economics

Facebook: Dan Niles Now Long After Covering His Short Position

FB Facebook Stock Share Lock-up Expiration Timetable

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Japan vs. the US -- Re: Depression Economics...
Date:	Fri, 26 Oct 2012 07:45:53 -0700
From:	Jas Jain <jas_jain

Japan vs. the US --  Re: Depression Economics

Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 06:38:49 -0700
Subject: Re: Depression Economics: "US government will run deficits exceeding one trillion dollars a year…"
To: jas_jain

AS: "Jas, Real per-capita gdp growth has indeed been dismal over the past decade or so, but we did avoid a complete meltdown due to Gov't spending. If the Gov't reigns in deficit spending (a possibility) we will immediately fall into a deflationary depression."

Yes. Only being able to borrow-and-spend has kept inflation rate bet. Bernanke target of 1-2% (Core CPI over a 3-year period has been extremely stable over the past two years of weak recovery) by permitting artificially high, govt financed, consumption. Food Stamps do help keep the food inflation rate higher than it would otherwise be.

"That's not my baseline forecast though.  I still see a Japanese style malaise resulting from continued high levels of Gov't deficit spending. Unlike most, I don't believe the bs that Gov't deficits are unsustainable or that the U.S. Government will run out of "money".  That's not to say that continued deficit spending will aid the majority though. 

There are very important differences between Japan and the US. First, and most important, is that the global economy was doing very well during most of the past 22 years helping Japan with exports despite very weak domestic demand. Going forward, the US economy is not going to be so lucky in terms of global growth. Second, Japanese have been producing more than they have been consuming all these years building a huge cushion of household savings. Third, in Paternalistic Japan the people at the top care a lot more about the people at the bottom than is the case in multicultural societies like the US. Income and wealth inequality is lot lower in Japan.

"The looting apparatus is still in place!  The crooks are still in charge!  There was never a moment of national learning about the fraudulent nature of the system and those pulling the strings.  The fleecing will continue."

Crooks in Japan take in lot lower % of GDP than do Crooks in India and the US. In other words Japan has lot more makers than takers compared to the US. It is true that we are not Japan; we have a far worse political system that serves the Crooks at the expense of the working middle class. Americans have all the reason to be angry except that their vote means nothing in terms of correcting the problems.

Jas

S&P500 PE & CAPE History - Price to Earnings Ratio - Historical PE Ratios

Stock Markets vs. Federal Funds Rate:

Facebook Lock-up Expiration Timetable

 Facebook: Dan Niles Now Long After Covering His Short Position

See  FB Facebook Stock Share Lock-up Expiration Timetable

My guess is Dan Niles is playing a bounce in stock price and will be out before the date showing 53.6% of the shares hit the market next month.

If he wanted to buy more shares for his hedge fund right after it jumped 20%, then why would he tell a large audience it was a good value?

Personally, I would not touch the stock with Dan's ten foot pole until after 95% of the shares are released for sale.

"Witnessing the Republicans and the Democrats bicker over the U.S. debt is like watching two drunks argue over a bar bill on the Titanic."   Kirk Lindstrom

How Many Jobs Has Bernanke Lost Since His Appointment?

Best Savings Account Rate Survey 

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	The JOBS MATH: How Many Jobs Has Bernanke Lost Since His Appointment?
Date:	Tue, 23 Oct 2012 11:35:10 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

--> The JOBS MATH: How Many Jobs Has Bernanke Lost Since His Appointment?

Few months ago Bernanke claimed that the Fed policies have created 2M net new jobs over the past 3-4 years. If he is right then that is after the Fed policies under Bernanke lost 4 million jobs. How come? Bernanke was appointed Chairman in January 2006 and bet. Feb'06-Sep'12 a total of 1.913M jobs have been lost.

How was Bernanke able to keep net job losses since Feb'06 to such a small number (only 2M) when conditions were fully ripe for the Greater Depression? At the cost of deficit spending by the households and the federal govt to the tune of $8Tr. over a period of 6.5+ years. In the absence of this huge cost, a bill to be paid some time in not too distant a future, the job losses under Bernanke would have been at least 10M. What it amounts to is that Bernanke and Obama have been able to buy 8M "temporary" jobs at a cost of $1M per new net job. American econo-political system is a sick system.

With the total cumulative cost of $26Tr. in consumption debt, mostly since 2001, it is a safe bet that when the depression can no longer be suppressed there would be some 26M net job losses. Can you spell the  g-r-e-a-t-e-r d-e-p-r-e-s-s-i-o-n? It is getting ever closer.

Jas

CD Rates at Largest US Banks
Best CD Rates By State  - High Yield CDs
 Historical Savings Acct Rates

BERNANKE: You Can't Fire Me — I'm Going To Quit In 2014

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Adjusted For Inflation
Historical Chart

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Re: BERNANKE: You Can't Fire Me — I'm Going To Quit In 2014
Date:	Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:26:21 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Re: BERNANKE: You Can't Fire Me — I'm Going To Quit In 2014

George B.: "Jas, I would argue that Bernanke has done a pretty good job of keeping deflation bottled up in the closet using his unconventional tools.  He bought us time, during which fracking and horizontal drilling were perfected.  Our natural gas prices are now so low that the Boston Consulting Group has predicted that 5 million heavy manufacturing jobs will be returning to the U.S. in the next 8 years.  The U.S. is now a net energy exporter (natural gas, coal, etc.)."

"Bought us time," but at what cost in the future? That is the problem that the academic neo-Keynesians never address.

"Would you have preferred that a horrible deflationary depression have already hit?  Hell, looters and unchecked gangsters might have already broken into your house and killed you (or me) by now.  Instead, I enjoyed a nice glass of wine last night with my bride in my (currently) safe home."

As I have said countless times, the deflationary depression was backed in the cake years ago by the ever-increasing consumption debt and postponing the necessary adjustment back to the income-based consumption, at a huge cost to be paid in the future, is fool's game. Greenspan-Bernanke Fed has bamboozled the American people via Asset Bubbles. We are now nearing the end of the road in suppressing the depression.

"You have been consistently right, Jas, and because of your sage advice, I avoided all of the financial carnage.  I also warned my trust deed investors about deflation and helped many of them reduce some of their pain.  So thank you!"

Thanks for the credit and you are always welcome.

"That being said, now it sounds like you're cheering for a deflationary depression.  The only guys who will benefit from a deflationary depression may be a handful of neighborhood warlords."

No, I am not cheering for anything; I am simply pointing to the unavoidable outcome. You think that Bernanke has done good things by buying time, but you have not seen the bill. Bernanke is a CROOK as was Greenspan. Their fraud, so obvious to some of us, would be discovered in due course.

Best regards,

Jas

Kirk Lindstrom Article:
U.S. Borrowed 31 Cents Of Each $1 Spent In Fiscal 2012:
Final Deficit Is $1.1 Trillion

South Africa Great for English and German Speaking Tourists

Welcome Home Jas!

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	South Africa Is a Great Place for English and German Speaking Tourists
Date:	Sat, 13 Oct 2012 06:26:06 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

-->

South Africa Is a Great Place for English and German Speaking Tourists

Just got back few days ago from a trip to South Africa and a 2-day trip to Zambia and Zimbabwe to see Victoria Falls. We came across many English-speaking tourists from America, Australia and the UK and Afrikaans-Dutch-German speaking tourists (these languages sound similar to me). Prices are comparable to the US, food was good, and hospitality excellent. I would rate the service as as good or better than in America, Germany and the UK. We visited what I later learned were the most popular places in South Africa for the tourists—safaris in select private lodges, Cape Town, the Garden Route and the wine region near Cape Town. The roads are very good. Crime rates are high, so vigilance is required. Some people like it so much that they visit once or more times every year.

Over the next week or two I would share some of my observations and some photos that I took. 

Jas

Historical Chart
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Adjusted For Inflation