Jas Jain Market Prediction - Head & Shoulder Top

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Subject:	RE: Markets
Date:	Thu, 20 Aug 2015 12:12:50 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 12:07:27 -0700

From: A2Z
To: jas_jain
Subject: Re: Markets

The last time the market internals deteriorated as much and the confluence of coincident indicators occurred was summer 2011 and summer-fall 2007, periods when the SPX declined ~20%.

• Yellen is a trained propagandist and as far as how the real economy functions she is KNOW-NOTHING chair warmer.

Be prepared for the central/TBTE banks to panic again.

• They would find themselves in deep sh*t this time around.
• Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

--     best regards  

Kirk Lindstrom  http://kirklindstrom.com/  

Blog: http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com  

Newsletter: http://kirklindstrom.com/Newsletter.html  

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Presidential Party by Year and President from 1953 to 2016

 Medium Single-Family Home Prices in Ounces of Gold
Rough double in 3 yrs!

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Subject:	Reactionary Party Politics In America
Date:	Mon, 13 Apr 2015 09:00:50 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Reactionary Party Politics In America

In 1952 elections the Republican Party took control of the White House from the Democrat Party. Since then, in the 64-year period, 1953-2016, there have been exactly eight party changes for the presidency and six of them were after 8 years, i.e., with the exception of a 16-year period, 1976-1992, every eight years the party in control of the White House changed.

PRESIDENTS	PARTY	YEARS	PERIOD
Eisenhower, Dwight David	Republican	8	1953-1960
Kennedy, John Fitzgerald & Lyndon Johnson	Democratic	8	1961-1968
Nixon, Richard Milhous & Gerald Ford	Republican	8	1969-1976
Carter, James Earl Jr.	Democratic	4	1977-1980
Reagan, Ronald Wilson + GHW Bush	Republican	12	1981-1992
Clinton, William Jefferson	Democratic	8	1993-2000
Bush, George Walker	Republican	8	2001-2008
Obama, Barack Hussein	Democratic	8	2009-2016

The results are strictly based on reaction and the short-term orientation of the voters and the elites, including the politicians, of course. Some of the cyclicality is tied to the economic cycles, i.e., recessions and some to purely dissatisfaction with the system and the party in power is blamed. If the recession coincides with the election year then a change in the party is more or less guaranteed. My forecast is for a recession to begin way before the 2016 elections and that bodes well for the Republican nominee, whoever it turns out to be. It would have very little to do with the policies promised by the two parties. Since both parties lie about the promises the current economic conditions sway the voters in the middle of the political spectrum.

As the Clinton strategist saisdin 1991: It is the economy, stupid!

Jas

Hey Jas, how long have you been predicting a recession for the next year?

And whatever happened to your 1998 prediction for Los Altos home prices falling 67% to $250,000?  You seemed to have missed by over a factor of 10!

•  Los Altos Home Prices Grew 13% in 2014 & up 282% since 1998

and

• US Dollar Index Surges to 12-Year High 
• Gold and GLD Resistance and Support Levels Three Key Charts to watch

Severe Local Warming

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Subject:	Severe Local Warming
Date:	Sat, 14 Feb 2015 13:18:58 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

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Severe Local Warming

Today is a near-perfect weather day where I live, some 20-25 degrees (Fahrenheit) warmer than the historical average for this day. For the past 45 days, coldest of the winter period, we have been more than 15 degrees warmer than the same period historically and the weather has been similar to the first half of the spring. Last year was the hottest recorded year in the Kern County area and this year, thus far, is way ahead of the last year.

One of my fruit tree, plum, is in full bloom and I see some bees swarming (picture attached). A Periwinkle vine has a beautiful purple flower, when normally it would be buried under some snow.

Few days ago there were many beautiful sunrises and sunsets. I am attaching one picture.

Jas

SPY 1.8% Below Record High While ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Rises To 6-Week High

Deflationary Depression Thesis - In Plain American

Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices Plunge 24% to a five-year low

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Subject:	Let Me Make My Deflationary Depression Thesis Very Clear In Plain American
Date:	Fri, 30 Jan 2015 08:34:17 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

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Let Me Make My Deflationary Depression Thesis Very Clear In Plain American

Communicating with born-and-bred American dopes is not easy because they are so used to dope dealers that pander to them and they have been brainwashed by a highly organized propaganda machine. I know, says a born-and-bred American dope no matter how ignorant of the subject he may be.

My thesis repeated many times over the past 16 years is as follows:

All the growth in the US economy since 1998 has been a direct result of borrow-and-consume. There are two sources of this ever-increasing consumption debt as a % of the GDP, the total household debt and the federal deficit spending. A house is a consumption item just like a piece of furniture, so clearly stated by Adam Smith 240 years ago.

Borrow-and-consume today means less ability to consume tomorrow. That means less future demand. And that would mean continued deflationary pressure.

"Printing Money" is a propaganda lie. Proof: over last past 6.5 years inflation has been steadily falling if one ignored the volatility and the noise. "Printing Money" has been at an unprecedented level.

The single most important variable in a financialized economy is debt.  Only during the depressions that debts are harmonized with the economic fundamentals with a good part of the private debt defaulted. The growth in the federal debt during the next recession simply can't be the same as during 2008-2014; hence, fiscal stimulus began under GW Bush is nearing its limits. We already have reached the limits of the monetary stimulus.

It is the debt, stupid!

Jas 

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From: george B
Subject: Re: Deflation In the Near Future (2016): A Picture Worth a Thousand Words
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2015 09:32:19 -0500
To: jas_jain

What about the argument that the US consumer is far healthier today than in 2008?  He has refinanced his house and saved $450+ per month.  Consumers are avoiding debt (I know, this only hastens deflation), and US corporations are lean, largely debt free, and enjoy huge cash reserves. 

I think you're right about some deflation, Jas, but this time I can't agree with the depression part of your argument.  I think we now enjoy good deflation, rather than than bad deflation.

Look like you have bought into the propaganda, George B. It is nearly impossible to escape propaganda in a country where brainwashing the populace is Job#1. The Age of Propaganda began in America long before you were born! You are screwed, my e-friend.

Nothing personal, merely the business of investigating the facts in the midst of all the lies.

Jas

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On Jan 30, 2015, at 8:08 AM, Jas Jain wrote:

Deflation In the Near Future (2016): A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

If you draw a trend-line on the attached graph it should go below zero in 2016. The worldwide deflationary depression during 2016-18 is on track. 5-Year Treasuries would yield negative, 10-Year below 1% and 30-Year below 1.5%

Scams would be hammered and long-term Treasuries would soar.

Jas

WTIC Crude Oil Price Per Barrel History 
with Resistance & Support Levels

Jim Cramer's 2014 Action Alerts Plus Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance

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Two good articles about Russia

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	RE: two good articles about Russia
Date:	Tue, 27 Jan 2015 11:09:58 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Re: two good articles about Russia

Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 17:50:14 +0000

Subject: two good articles about Russia

1. http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/putins-ultimatum-to-russian-oligarchs.html
   
   
2. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russian-Sanctions-Might-Be-Obamas-Greatest-Blunder.html

Obama's blunders are not his own. He does what the American oligarchs tell him to. He is a bought and paid for political slave.

Putin is tightening screws on oligarchs because they don't care about Russia and some are in bed with the West, i.e., they are traitors who cant' be trusted.

Most of the wealthy in America and Russia are worse than mere Crooks. They are enemies of the working people who obey the laws and pay taxes.

Jas


Three more good articles:

1. 2015 US Federal Income Tax Brackets & Federal Marginal Tax Rates for 2015
   
   
2. Jim Cramer's 2014 Action Alerts Plus Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance
   
   
3. 2015 Crude Oil Price Predictions from T. Boone Pickens & Prince Alwaleed

Good Email to Start the Year

Happy New Year!

from Kirk

Through the rest   of 2015. .      May you always make the right moves. May your cup runneth over with love. May you always find shelter from any storm. May you remain good looking and looking good! May you find the perfect diet for your soul. (If this face doesn't make you want to stop eating sausage, nothing will.) May you find perfect balance in the company you keep. May you have as much fun as you can before someone makes you stop. May the worst thing that happens to you come in slobbery pink and furry tan. May you manage to make time for siesta. May all the new folks you meet be interesting and kind. May your accessories always harmonize with your natural beauty! Should your mouth be bigger than your stomach, may you have a chewing good time! May you always know when to walk away and know when to run.  And may your friends always bring you joy! MAY YOU HAVE A WONDERFUL NEW YEAR  FILLED WITH LOVE, HAPPINESS AND HOPE..

 best regards  
Kirk Lindstrom 
 http://kirklindstrom.com/  

This  article that updates 2014 global market performance:
 Year 2014 in Review 

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