Monday, April 13, 2015

Presidential Party by Year and President from 1953 to 2016


-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Reactionary Party Politics In America
Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2015 09:00:50 -0700
From: Jas Jain


Reactionary Party Politics In America



In 1952 elections the Republican Party took control of the White House from the Democrat Party. Since then, in the 64-year period, 1953-2016, there have been exactly eight party changes for the presidency and six of them were after 8 years, i.e., with the exception of a 16-year period, 1976-1992, every eight years the party in control of the White House changed.



PRESIDENTS PARTY YEARS PERIOD
Eisenhower, Dwight David Republican 8 1953-1960
Kennedy, John Fitzgerald & Lyndon Johnson Democratic 8 1961-1968
Nixon, Richard Milhous & Gerald Ford Republican 8 1969-1976
Carter, James Earl Jr. Democratic 4 1977-1980
Reagan, Ronald Wilson + GHW Bush Republican 12 1981-1992
Clinton, William Jefferson Democratic 8 1993-2000
Bush, George Walker Republican 8 2001-2008
Obama, Barack Hussein Democratic 8 2009-2016

The results are strictly based on reaction and the short-term orientation of the voters and the elites, including the politicians, of course. Some of the cyclicality is tied to the economic cycles, i.e., recessions and some to purely dissatisfaction with the system and the party in power is blamed. If the recession coincides with the election year then a change in the party is more or less guaranteed. My forecast is for a recession to begin way before the 2016 elections and that bodes well for the Republican nominee, whoever it turns out to be. It would have very little to do with the policies promised by the two parties. Since both parties lie about the promises the current economic conditions sway the voters in the middle of the political spectrum.

As the Clinton strategist saisdin 1991: It is the economy, stupid!

Jas

Hey Jas, how long have you been predicting a recession for the next year?

And whatever happened to your 1998 prediction for Los Altos home prices falling 67% to $250,000?  You seemed to have missed by over a factor of 10!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dear Jas, we need some posts from you. You save us from putting our money at risk and your writing is entertaining.





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