| Subject: | Editorial--Long-Term Chart of Swiss Franc (CHF) In US Dollar and Over-Under Valuation Chart |
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| Date: | Sun, 31 Jul 2011 09:36:09 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
July 31, 20111
CHF has gone up 130% under the weak dollar policies of GW Bush, Bernanke and Obama over the past ten years, as can be seen in the Fig. 1. This is in sharp contrast to the strong dollar policy of Reagan.
Overshoot, mean reversion, and undershoot are all part of the behavior of financial markets dominated by speculators. The Forex market is the domain of speculators big, e.g., George Soros, and small and govt manipulators. Fig. 2 shows overshoot and undershoot of the CHF w.r.t. the USD over the past 40 years.
What would bring CHF down (as it has been the case several times in the past)? Lest people forget Switzerland relies very heavily on imports and exports, i.e., global trade. Not only is CHF grossly over-valued compared to the USD, it is also over-valued compared to the Euro, its the largest trading partners.
The current bearish sentiment against the US dollar is the result of massive global imbalances caused primarily by economic and financial manipulators in the US over the past two decades. This has allowed Americans to live beyond their means year after year after year. All such things always come to an end, i.e., reality forces them to an end. The current fight over the debt ceiling in the US is recognition of the fact that one could not continue on a certain path of kicking the can down the road forever. The same applies for the global imbalances.
Some economic or political event would trigger massive adjustments in the economies of various countries and that would inevitably lead to a massive rally in the US dollar when Americans would be forced to live within their means by lowering their consumption, especially, consumption of foreign goods and services. It could happen sooner than most are prepared for.
Jas Jain| Subject: | Most Over-Valued Currencies as Per the Latest Big-Mac Index |
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| Date: | Sat, 30 Jul 2011 13:55:18 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/07/big-mac-index
NOTE: I have adjusted the prices based on the currency prices as of Friday's (07/29/11) Close
Norwegian Krone and Swiss franc are the most over valued currencies based on the cost of a Big-Mac during late July. The cost of the Big-Mac is 104% higher in these two countries, $8.24!, compared to the average price in the big metros in the US, $4.07. Sweden in #3.
There has been a heard mentality among the dollar and the US Treasury bears to move into these two currencies. Needless to say that Treasury bears like Jim Rogers have been taken to the cleaners (the dope has had to cover at a loss several times in the past and he is at a loss right now unless he has covered again at a loss; talk about irremediable dopes that refuse to acknowledge what they don't understand well enough to come to a sound conclusion). It is only a matter of time before the dollar bears like Peter Schiff that favor certain fiat currencies, like Krone and Swiss franc, over the US dollar, would also be taken to the cleaners. All in due course.
Trend followers always get caught when the trend invariably reverts to the mean. Swiss franc would lose 40-50% from the high based on having done so at least twice over the past 26 years. Currencies like British Pound, Euro (D-Mark before that), Yen and Swiss franc (the ones that I have followed over the years) always trade between two extremes. Right now Swiss franc is at the most extreme. For example, Swiss franc was $0.55 during late 2000 and now it is $1.27 (up 131%). It has gone from under valuation to severe over-valuation.
Most ordinary investors lose money in the currency market just as do in the Scam Market. One reason is that they are ignorant of the historical behavior of these markets. They invariably get sucked-in during the bull run, most of them towards the end of that run. What else is new?
The US dollar is under-valued against most currencies and significantly so against some that are a part of a crowded trade. Madness of the crowds?!
Jas
| Subject: | Dishonesty IS the Best Policy! – Re: Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Want Debt Ceiling to be Raised |
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| Date: | Thu, 28 Jul 2011 19:03:26 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain <jas_jain@hotmail.com> |
| Subject: | Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Want Debt Ceiling to be Raised |
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| Date: | Thu, 28 Jul 2011 16:11:59 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Want Debt Ceiling to be Raised
Do you need better proof as to what is good and what is bad for the American People?
If Republicans were serious about the balance budget then all that they need to do is to vote not to raise the debt ceiling. Force the balance budget NOW! In addition to being a good policy for the long-term it happens to be good politics. Let Obama and his stooge, tea-me Geithner, make the choices as to what to cut and what not to cut. Republicans are too dishonest to do what they say. At least, Democrats are honest about more taxes on the wealthy and the welfare spending.
Jas| Subject: | Inflation In America |
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| Date: | Thu, 28 Jul 2011 15:14:09 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
Ten weeks ago, a friend and I took a sightseeing trip (on my list of trips to do) to southeast of America—direct flight from Los Angeles to Washington, D.C., a full-size rental car, round trip from D.C. to Smoky Mountain National Park in Tennessee (different routes, one scenic and one direct)—and the total cost, including four nights of stay in motels, gas, parking, food, drinks, airfare, etc., was $1,550, or $775 per person (only 620 CHF per person!). I am certain that such a trip would have cost more a hundred or two hundred years ago and with LOT more inconvenience. OK, it might have cost less during a certain period, but nowhere in the world could one undertake such a journey (keeping quality of roads, convenience, accommodations, etc. in mind) at a lower cost. Hack, having just turned 62, I got a lifetime pass to all national parks for $10! God bless America!!
Few months before that I took a trip with the same friend and my son to high mountains of Mexico (on a scenic train within Mexico thru Copper Canyon, aslo on my list of trips too take) and the total cost per person was a bit lower. Once again, such a journey would have cost lot more, in nominal dollars, a hundred or two hundred years ago, if at all possible. Just prior to that the same was true of a family trip to Seattle via train (to have my grandson experience a long train trip), boat and airplane.
Traveling with great convenience has rarely been cheaper and better if one makes adjustments for quality and convenience. There are lots of things that are cheaper and better than they used to be. It is a matter of choice how one allocates one's spending dollars.
JasJoining us on the phone from Thailand, economist Dr. Marc Faber is here this week to discuss the Dollar, gold, silver, real estate – and his utter distaste for the economic policy of Obama, Bernanke, Geithner, et al.
"Americans would get a true sense of what is going on if they wouldn't listen to the constant repeated lies published by the government," such as unemployment and inflation figures.
Faber also explains why America is turning into a banana republic, "which is largely characterized by a political elite that doesn't care about the people, but really only cares about their own well-being."
He also addresses some of the questionable motivations of US economic and military policy. "Why is the US in Iraq? It has nothing to do with human rights and democracy. It's about oil."
"Eventually, this whole system will collapse," he warns. "And just like when a computer crashes, you have to re-boot it. The whole financial system will be re-booteded."
To gird your investment portfolio from the future Faber sees coming, he suggests staying away from cash and government bonds.
"More desirable is probably real estate, especially now in the United States at this level. It may still go down another 10%, but it's now reasonably priced and by some standards, it's even cheap."
Faber also suggests some equities and precious metals as hedges against the coming inflationary economic collapse.
In order to survive financially, investors must embrace volatility.
"I think we're moving into an environment where if you lose only 50% of your money, you may actually be lucky."
| Subject: | Literally On the Edge |
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| Date: | Mon, 11 Jul 2011 07:34:59 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
Monday, July 11, 2011
Europe: Bond Yields up Sharply for Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal
by CalculatedRisk on 7/11/2011 08:35:00 AM
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/europe-bond-yields-up-sharply-for-italy.html
The four countries listed are literally on the edge of Europe—South, South, North West and South West, respectively. Austria, Germany and Switzerland, in the middle and German-speaking, managing quite well. Advances in communication and transportation, most efficient in history by far, have taken away the advantages once enjoyed by ports and countries on the edge. Over time, the advantages enjoyed by the Greeks, Italians, Portuguese and, lately, by Anglo-Americans have dwindled. Germany is claiming its rightful place in Europe and together with China would end the Anglo-American hegemony. Sooner than you think.
Jas
| Subject: | Ann Coulter & FDR! |
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| Date: | Sun, 10 Jul 2011 10:19:03 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
Ann Coulter & FDR!
Below are quotes from Ann Coulter and FDR (my emphasis), 75 years apart. Both are complaining about the System of the Crooks that is the normal state of affairs for the American econo-political system. Ms Coulter, a right-wing partisan dope dealer (propagandist), is hypocritical, to say the least. Money and political power is not the feature of the Republican Party? Is she complaining about democracy, "elite in control of the general will," or she doesn't like the outcome when one set of born-and-bred dopes elect Democrats? A partisan dope dealer as well as a partisan dope has to be dishonest of necessity.
Ronald Dworkin is a left-wing dope dealer who thinks that Obama is great (because people like him voted and canvassed for him) but he needs to learn lessons from FDR. Only a moron would compare Obama to Roosevelts (TR and FDR). Roosevelts, aristocrats, commanded power and respect whereby they could take on the moneyed interests, or at least the moneyed interests couldn't trample on them, or threaten them. Obama, a democrat, is a slave to powerful interests, bankers and financiers included, and if he gets out of line he is finished even as a sitting President (his influence would dwindle). Obama serves at the pleasure of an organized cabal and the cabal must bless his actions in addition to writing his speeches. In a nation of economic slaves, majority of the population, Obama is a glorified slave. The elected political leaders have lot less power today then they had 75 years ago, or 150 years ago, or 225 years ago. Money reigns supreme like never before.
Ain't the ease with which the System of the Crooks rules over Americans something to wonder at? That is why breeding dopes became a necessity. It would either take a disorganized mob descending on the Crooks, or election of an American Hitler (an ethnic white Christian nationalist fascist leader) to over throw the moneyed Crooks. Dope dealers on the left, e.g., Dworkin, Krooksman and most of Obama supporters in the media, and the dope dealers on the right, e.g., Coulter, Limbaugh and most of the Republicans in the media, are agents of the Crooks. The only difference is that they mostly serve different groups of Crooks. Some Crooks fund both groups of dope dealers.
Jas
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Ann Coulter complaining about Obama administration (on Follow The Money):
"That is the problem with these elites claiming to be in possession of the general will doing things for the general good. You inevitably end up with crony and corrupt govt where people with power and money can control the govt officials… The already powerful would get more powerful and the least powerful would be trampled on."
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-
How FDR Did It by Ronald Dworkin:
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2011/jul/07/how-fdr-did-it/
Here is Franklin Roosevelt, in Madison Square Garden, in 1936:
For nearly four years you have had an Administration which instead of twirling its thumbs has rolled up its sleeves. We will keep our sleeves rolled up. We had to struggle with the old enemies of peace—business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering. They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob. Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred. I should like to have it said of my first Administration that in it the forces of selfishness and of lust for power met their match. I should like to have it said of my second Administration that in it these forces met their master.
--
| Subject: | Truth-Telling Among "democratic" Dopes |
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| Date: | Thu, 30 Jun 2011 15:56:42 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
Aristotle left the town, Athens (not his town of birth), when he felt that there was a threat to his life because he didn't want Athens to put to death another philosopher, or truth-teller (Socrates being one; we actually don't know all that were put to death by the blood-thirsty demos of Athens in the 4th century B.C.). America is getting very close to the same phase of democracy as Athens was during the later life of Socrates.
Once, I made a mantel [EC: mental?] list (didn't write it on paper) of 25 of my intellectual mentors. Aristotle was #1 (Confucius, Tao, Mahavira, Buddha, Jesus, etc., among the ancients, included in the list, but Plato, the idealist, was not). If I were a practical man, or a political man, Muhammad would be #1 on the list. A modern-day Mohammad can conquer and unite the world! The Prophet was a forth rate philosopher but a first rate political man bar none.
There is nothing that democratic dopes (here, I mean popular democracy, as it exists in most of the Western world and India since 1950s) hate more than plain truth because truth is unpopular and popularity plays a big role in success among a democratic population.
If you want fame and fortune in America and India, I say, train in the arts of deception, lying, and manipulation (e.g., become a political economist!). The group that excels at these qualities is the most powerful and successful group in America today. It is not a coincidence, or a surprise. Supposedly "smart" people can do lot of evil! But they understand the democratic mind. Nazis did. Financial Nazis of America and their agents are fully aware of the fact. Born-and-bred American dopes are there for the taking! The question is: Who would take them? Only the evil men can compete for this prize!!
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