Saturday, January 19, 2008

From Bursting of Property Bubble, Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming

From: shell (sam warner)
Date Posted: January 19, 2008 at 00:43:15
Subject: julian robertson interview


Legendary Funds Manager Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming From Bursting of Property Bubble

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the "old-timer" funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted "utter global collapse" as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble. Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate. Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

Even more worrisome, he thinks central banks around the globe out of desperation will try to re-inflate the world economy with more liquidity that will create an inflationary spiral unseen in the economic history of mankind. "Where does it end?", Insana asked Robertson. "Utter global collapse," he answered. But not just economic collapse ... collapse of epic proportions. Collapse and disintegration of all infrastructure, including government. Inflation will run into the double and triple digits. "Food production will fall. People will be carrying around U.S. dollars in wheelbarrows like Germany ," he said.

There will be "total collapse of public infrastructure. Total collapse of medical care systems. All public pension plans, Social Security will collapse. All corporate pension plans will collapse."

"The American consumer is effectively now supporting the rest of the planet," he continued. "Consumption rates in all other nations are falling, have fallen to the point that the tax revenues to governments, that the business and industries those nation states are providing is now a net negative number relative to total debt service and public cost, that this exists in virtually every nation state on the planet now."
And for much of this "doom", interestingly, he blames the Bush-Cheney "regime". "They have now consolidated power and money on the planet to the maximum extent possible. The planet's net liquidity, that is its, net free cash flow. Is now a negative number. The planet is not simply sinking into a sea of red ink; it is already sunk. The people just don't realize it yet," he said.

According to Robertson, "the Bush-Cheney regime is preparing the nation for transition from democracy into dictatorship because a dictatorship will be necessary to control, in 5 years time, food and water riots."

He said "the federal government, that part of Patriot II Act, the internal exile, that the government is going to have to build now huge detention compounds on federal lands, probably in the West where the land is available, to potentially house 50 million or more citizens that will be in financial ruin."

In 10 years time, whoever is left will be effectively starting again, he said. "More importantly, and I'm trying to think how we imply this or how we express this to the people, what extraordinary times we are living in and how the destruction of the planet has been engineered by the Bushonian Cabal from 1980 to 1992, and then from 2001 to present, which has effectively destroyed the economic liquidity of the planet," he said.

Robertson ended the interview by saying that he hopes he is not alive to see this. "The lucky ones are the ones who are my age now," he said


=====

Kirk here... He sounds like Jas Jain!

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

The Big Enchilada – Prices in LA Co. dropping at 19.2% Annual Rate

Jas Jain has been saying the housing market in Santa Clara Valley would drop for a decade. My house would have to fall by 50% to reach the price it was when I first met Jas Jain and he told me property prices were going to crumble.


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: The Big Enchilada – Prices in LA Co. dropping at 19.2% Annual Rate
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:59:39 -0800
From: Jas Jain

--The Big Enchilada – Prices in LA Co. dropping at 19.2% Annual Rate

According to Radar Logic, the price per sq ft (PPSF) of homes recorded in 4 weeks ending on 11/14/07 in LA Co. fell at an annual rate of 19.2% during the 7-month period (mid-Apr to mid-Nov).

That is a big enchilada, folk.

As the Scam Market turns nasty, the Silly.con Valley will see 25%+ annual rate drop in prices. The Chosen Area syndrome has to end one day. The Crooks’ Game, including Scam Options, will be ending and they were the ones buying into the Chosen Areas. The Chosen Areas are full of Crooks and their underlings. This also applies to Manhattan.

Jas
All that time I've lived here in Los Altos, since 1994, I have saved the cost of renting. Had I listened to Jas Jain's "real estate advice and predictions" back when I met him in 1998, I would have missed a near double in equity.

Add all the money saved by not renting to the equity I have gained and I just chuckle when I read his posts and emails about the crash in Silicon Valley (and Manhattan for that matter) real estate.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Jas Jain Rewrites History

Jas "forgot" to mention in this email that he has been forecasting a "depression right around the corner" every year I've known him... dating back a decade to 1998!!!
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Bloomberg: “Worst Start For the Dow Since 1904”
Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2008 16:41:00 -0800
From: Jas Jain

--

Bloomberg: “Worst Start For the Dow Since 1904”

Holy Pig!

S&P 500 has given up all the gain of 2007 in the first three trading days. It closed at the same level as on 12/22/06.

What if 2008 ends up being the worst year since 1904? And 2009 worse than 2008! Who knows how long can the record continue.

It is lucky to take care of after-tax annual expenses in the first three days of trading, at least on paper. :-) It could turn out to be the case of easy come easy go.

I have been forecasting depression during 2008-10 and I feel confident about that forecast based on the recent developments.

Jas
Twice a day a stuck clock is right. How often is a the yearly "depression forecast" correct?




Suggested Reading


=>Article: How to Get the Best CD Rates
=>Article: Beware of Annuities
=>Info: Best Mortgage Loan Rates