Index of Small Business Optimism; Depression Ahead Says Jas Jain

Jas Jain is still predicting we fall into a depression.

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Subject:	The Most Important LEADING Index of the US Economy Shows Continuous Downturn
Date:	Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:14:16 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

The Most Important LEADING Index of the US Economy Shows Continuous Downturn

“The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 1.6 points in March to 81.0 (1986=100), still the second lowest reading in the 35 year history of the NFIB survey (80.1 is the low, reached in 1980Q2). Two of the Index components improved and 8 declined. There we no components that delivered a strong signal of improvement, that will have to wait for the April survey.”

When this index falls below 80.0, and remain below that level for three months, the probability that the US has entered a depression is very high. Of all segments—BIG Business, Consumers, and small business—small business does the worst during a prolonged depression and the BIG Business, headed by crooks that control the Fed and the US government, does the best for the simple reason that the US government stands ready to help the BIG Business as much as it can without widespread public revolt (riots are OK!)). If born-and-bred American dopes want change they would need a Million Gunmen March on New York City!! The lazy exercise of a vote for Barack “No Change” Obama wouldn’t do it.

Rogue economists never mention this index in their outlook.

Jas

Contrast this with ECRI which says otherwise.

Friday, April 03, 2009
Upturn in ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead
Today the Economic Cycle Research Institute, or ECRI an independent forecasting group based in New York, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) moved hither and its growth rate rose to a 23-week high signaling a turn in the business cycle is on their radar.

The WLI and its growth rate are designed to predict future turning points in the business cycle (recessions and recoveries.)

• More about ECRI
• Discuss the data with Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, in our facebook forum "ECRI - Economic Cycle Research Institute." If you are not already a member, then you may need to request invitation to "Investing for the Long Term" on Facebook.

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Important Economic and Political Sequence to Keep In Mind

With the markets now officially in a bear market, Jas Jain is predicting this is just the start of something much worse.

Market	9/4 close	Change
DJIA	11,188.23	-344.65
NASDAQ	2,259.04	-74.69
S&P500	1,236.83	-38.15

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	The Important Economic and Political Sequence to Keep In Mind
Date:	Fri, 5 Sep 2008 06:01:19 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

The following is what I sent out couple of months ago:

<<US Recession -- > Commodities Bust -- > Depression -- > Deflation -- > Greater Depression.

I want to disabuse American faithful of any thought that the Fed can prevent the above scenario. Beyond helping Bankrupters and Fraudsters the Fed is impotent. “The US taxpayers are the losers of last resort”!>>

To this I can add:

Global recession -- > Global Depression -- > Govt failures in many countries, including India -- > Collapse of the current US political system (approx. in 20 years).

All this because of the abuse of debt as never before in history. None of the above would have to happen if America was not controlled by the worst financial criminal gang in all of history.

Jas

Hope Jas Jain is wrong. Sadly, he is more right than I thought, especially about the crooks who did it all for fees and high salaries rather than the health of the companies there were entrusted to run.

I think we could change the law that NO company stock options or shares can be sold by insiders until after they leave the companies they work at. Then set it so those shares vest over 10 years so they have incentive to build companies with LASTING business models.

This would work not only for the tech companies where the abuse is ongoing, but at the financial companies too. I believe the owners at World Savings sold that company to Wachovia Bank knowing they sold a ton of loans to Californians who would be unable to pay them back. I also think the guys running Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac knew they were backing loans with all sorts of problems, but they were drawing huge salaries from profits to look the other way. If they were paid a "reasonable" salary then given stock for the rest that they could ONLY sell after they were gone over a 10 year vesting period, you KNOW they would have made sure the loans they bought were made to people who had the ability to pay them back.

Live market charts:

DJIA - S&P500 - NASDAQ
NYSE Composite - QQQQ - Russell 2000
Russell 3000 - Wilshire 5000
Crude Oil -

WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead

Note this is an email from Jas Jain.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2008 10:41:01 -0800
From: Jas Jain

February 01,2008

ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead

JB: “The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 131.1 for the week ending January 25 from a downwardly revised 135.7 (previously 135.8). The smoothed, annualized growth rate, however, decreased to -7.1% from an unrevised -6.1%. This ends two straight weeks of improvement for the growth rate.”

The CRASH in WLI level to 131.1 from 135.7 is not just another confirmation that the economy has already been in recession but the first confirmation of my forecast of this recession sliding easily into a depression. How so? It is a growing series and it is back to where it was 50 months ago. This behavior was last seen between 1970-1982, a period of very bad recessions and deep recessions. In 2001, it was seen in September when the economy was already in recession for 6 months (the worst of WLI is always seen after the recession and during the early period of a recovery!). Tells you how leading the indicator really is; as a matter of fact, it has been turned into a lagging indicator by back-adjusting (or back-testing)!

Once and for all, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI would be proven to be a bubble-meister and a propagandist and not a scientist. Dismal science has a lot to do with human behavior of economists and not due to anything inherent. Most of the economists that have access to the public via MSM are employed by businesses for the purpose of propaganda, e.g., NAR and CAR.

Never look to an economist for the forecast of recessions and depressions!

Jas

ECRI has not called for a recession yet, but Jas Jain has been calling for a depression for a decade.

See

• ECRI WLI Falls to a 6-year Low. The WLI fell due to higher jobless claims, weaker housing activity and lower stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "WLI growth has dropped back to the six-year low seen in early January," Achuthan said. "While the economy and employment did continue to grow through the end of 2007, the window of opportunity to avert a U.S. recession is about to slam shut."
  
• ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy

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From Bursting of Property Bubble, Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming

From: shell (sam warner)
Date Posted: January 19, 2008 at 00:43:15
Subject: julian robertson interview

Legendary Funds Manager Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming From Bursting of Property Bubble

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the "old-timer" funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted "utter global collapse" as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble. Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate. Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

Even more worrisome, he thinks central banks around the globe out of desperation will try to re-inflate the world economy with more liquidity that will create an inflationary spiral unseen in the economic history of mankind. "Where does it end?", Insana asked Robertson. "Utter global collapse," he answered. But not just economic collapse ... collapse of epic proportions. Collapse and disintegration of all infrastructure, including government. Inflation will run into the double and triple digits. "Food production will fall. People will be carrying around U.S. dollars in wheelbarrows like Germany ," he said.

There will be "total collapse of public infrastructure. Total collapse of medical care systems. All public pension plans, Social Security will collapse. All corporate pension plans will collapse."

"The American consumer is effectively now supporting the rest of the planet," he continued. "Consumption rates in all other nations are falling, have fallen to the point that the tax revenues to governments, that the business and industries those nation states are providing is now a net negative number relative to total debt service and public cost, that this exists in virtually every nation state on the planet now."
And for much of this "doom", interestingly, he blames the Bush-Cheney "regime". "They have now consolidated power and money on the planet to the maximum extent possible. The planet's net liquidity, that is its, net free cash flow. Is now a negative number. The planet is not simply sinking into a sea of red ink; it is already sunk. The people just don't realize it yet," he said.

According to Robertson, "the Bush-Cheney regime is preparing the nation for transition from democracy into dictatorship because a dictatorship will be necessary to control, in 5 years time, food and water riots."

He said "the federal government, that part of Patriot II Act, the internal exile, that the government is going to have to build now huge detention compounds on federal lands, probably in the West where the land is available, to potentially house 50 million or more citizens that will be in financial ruin."

In 10 years time, whoever is left will be effectively starting again, he said. "More importantly, and I'm trying to think how we imply this or how we express this to the people, what extraordinary times we are living in and how the destruction of the planet has been engineered by the Bushonian Cabal from 1980 to 1992, and then from 2001 to present, which has effectively destroyed the economic liquidity of the planet," he said.

Robertson ended the interview by saying that he hopes he is not alive to see this. "The lucky ones are the ones who are my age now," he said

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Kirk here... He sounds like Jas Jain!