Fwd: RE: Double dip and the New Financial Conditions Index . . .

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	RE: Double dip and the New Financial Conditions Index . . .
Date:	Mon, 8 Mar 2010 06:21:58 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Subject: Double dip and the New Financial Conditions Index . . .
Date: Sun, 7 Mar 2010 21:03:31 -0800

http://imperialeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/03/prepare-for-double-dip-no-not-frozen.html

 

Changing Tunes of Guru Lakshman Achuthan

January 08, 2010: ""With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy is firmly set to strengthen in the coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI."

January 22, 2010: "the recovery "will continue to gain ground in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, who has recently forecast that the index's steady growth points to improvement in the jobs market in the near term."

February 05, 2010: "WLI Growth Down, Double Dip Unlikely"

 
March 05, 2010: "It was yearly growth's lowest reading since July 31, 2009 when it read 11.3 percent. "The decline ... underscores our view that U.S. economic growth will start easing by mid-year," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reaffirming the group's recent forecasts of more"
 
Looks like the guru was trained by a fortuneteller. The Titanic has changed course over an 8-week period! What we have is a dope recovery with overdose of dope from the government and the dope is reduced. When the dope stops (the plug is pulled by the creditors!) the depression begins. There is no mystery in the US economy. It is a predictable tale of crooks and dopes.

Jas

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Kirk's Comments:  From his comments above, it appears Jas Jain does not understand the difference between speed and direction of a ship or the economy.  

Jas Jain doesn't seem to understand that "the U.S. economy is firmly set to strengthen in the coming month" means that ECRI predicted in January that the US economy would get stronger in January, Feb and probably March.  Then on March 5 Lakshman said he expects rate of GDP growth to back off by mid-year.  Recently the estimate of Q4-09 GDP growth was revised UPWARDS from 5.7% to 5.9%.     Nowhere has ECRI predicted GDP growth would be negative which is needed for a change of direction yet Jas Jain falsely claims ECRI is calling for a change of direction of the US economy. 

For more about ECRI and Lakshman Achuthan, see:

• March 04, 2010: ECRI Says No Recession This Year, But Recessions Will Be More Frequent so Buy and Hold is Dead
  
  
• More about ECRI

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