Morgan Stanley David Dorsch Says Q1 and Q2 to Have Negative GDP Growth

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Subject: Morgan Stanley Chief Strategist Says Q1 and Q2 to Have Negative GDP Growth & More
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 04:34:41 -0800
From: Jas Jain

December 17, 2007

Morgan Stanley Chief Strategist Says Q1 and Q2 to Have Negative GDP Growth

David Dorsch (sp?) appeared on Boob-berg early this morning. He said that we would have a recession during the first half of 2008. I am assuming that he is reflecting the conclusion of MS Chief Economist. If one of the top Wall Street firm sees recession to begin in 2008Q1 we can be fairly confident that the recession has already begun during 2007Q4. Also, David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch more or less says that the recession is here. Another Wall Streeter appeared on Boob-berg who said that his firm is not calling for a recession but he sees one.

ECRI weekly data (and not the ECRI econ-meisters) also confirm my recession call (thanks, Bruce):

Weekly Leading Index 138.0 -3.8 7 Dec 2007

Confirmations for recession just keep on coming, even from Wall Street.

Jas--