ECRI WLI Growth Rate Falls to Negative 5.2%

Today Jas Jain once again rings the recession bell while being critical of ECRI for saying a recession is still not inevitable.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate, -5.2%, Falls In the ECRI’s Recession Range of –5% to –6%
Date: Fri, 28 Dec 2007
From: Jas Jain

December 28, 2007 : ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate, -5.2%, Falls In the ECRI’s Recession Range of –5% to –6%

December 24, 2007 press release from ECRI: “The ECRI leading U.S. index's growth rate has hit a 5-year low of -4.8%. Typically a -5% to -6% reading is needed for a recession.”

Latest Data (December 28, 2007):

Weekly Leading Index 135.2 -5.2

So, “the ECRI leading U.S. index's growth rate” has fallen below 5%. One wonders why the ECRI econ-meisters are not issuing the recession forecast now that the data is screaming recession. My analysis of the long-term behavior of the WLI confirms a recession that will end up in depression.

Jas

Jas, obviously there is more to their forecast than the raw numbers. Here is the ECRI press release from today.

Weekly Leading Index Falls (but no recession call)

NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell due to higher jobless claims and lower stock prices, as its annualized growth rate hit a five-year low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 135.2 in the week of Dec. 21 from 136.2 in the prior week.

The negative effect of higher claims for unemployment benefits and weaker equities was partially offset by lower interest rates, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

WLI annualized growth rate fell to minus 5.2 percent from minus 4.8 percent. It was last that low on Nov. 1, 2002, according to ECRI data.

"With Weekly Leading Index growth fast approaching its worst reading since the 2001 recession, the U.S. growth outlook continues to deteriorate. Nevertheless, it is still premature to predict a recession," Achuthan said.

Jas, you should join our facebook ECRI forum so you can ask questions of Lakshman directly. You have to admit ECRI has been accurate while you have not with your constant calls for a depression.

Request Invitation to FREE facebook discussion group "Investing for the Long Term."