Rise and Fall of AAPL - Formerly Apple Computer

Funny how I posted an article about Apple earlier today here:

• Mar 4, 2013 AAPL: Apple Price Gap Filled:
  Resistance And Support Graphs
  and
• April 12,2012  Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct?
  NO THEY WERE NOT!
  

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Rise and Fall of AAPL
Date:	Mon, 4 Mar 2013 14:54:38 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Rise and Fall of AAPL

Please see the attached chart of AAPL Scam for the past 14 months. The Scam is down a bit from where it was 14 months ago but long-term shareholders made 2% because of the dividend. We can be sure that Crooks and their agents cleaned out $30-40B, all the profit that the company made, during the same period including some Crooks who are running Apple. That is how the Scam Market works and why it exists—to feed the System of the Crooks. Let us see if Steve Jobs and Tim Cook can better John Chambers in serving the Crooks' interests.

 

Silly.con Valley is populated by a high % of morally blind people, its "economy," i.e., profligacy is built on fraud, and will sink on fraud just as the high tech homes of yester years, Detroit and Flint, MI, did. Enjoy the fraud while it lasts, all you silly cons!

Jas

Make sure you look at my second graph comparing Apple to Sony, HP (HPQ) and Dell Here.

• Current AAPL Charts and Quote
  and
  
• Mar 1, 2012 Apple's Market Cap Breaks $500B Barrier; Can It Keep This Where All Others Have Failed?

Warren Buffet Speculative Opportunity based on BRK-B to SPY Ratio

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Buffet Scam As a Scam Market Signal Offers Fantastic Speculative Opportunity
Date:	Mon, 4 Mar 2013 06:25:53 -0800
From:	Jas Jain <jas_jain

Buffet Scam As a Scam Market Signal Offers Fantastic Speculative Opportunity

Since Warren Buffet bought Gen Re in June 1998 his scam is more and more like a mutual fraud and has a very high long-term correlation with S&P 500, a proxy for the Scam Market. Buffet Scam, BRK-B, is up 6% relative to the SPY over the period, but because it has no dividend, the total return of S&P 500 has out-performed Buffet Scam by some 25% over the past 14.7 years. Amazingly, the ratio of BRK-B to SPY has been a great signal for the market trouble, i.e., serious decline, ahead. Please see the two attached graphs.

Here is a Summary table:

Week Of	BRK-B	SPY	BRK-B % SPY	VIX	Comment
06/15/98	54.1	85.42	63.334	21.61	Buffet Buys Gen Re
03/06/00	27.4	110.61	24.772	21.24	Scam Market High
09/30/02	48.76	65.96	73.924	39.46	Scam Market Low
07/16/07	72.85	136.3	53.448	16.95	Scam Market Near High
10/20/08	74.26	79.3	93.644	79.13	Scam Market Near Low
04/23/12	80.56	137.95	58.398	16.32	Buffet Out-Perform Means Trouble Ahead?
02/25/13	102.05	152.11	67.090	15.36

Long-term options, e.g., Jan 2015, provide fantastic opportunity to play this relationship. Please do your own research because I don't have the time to provide specific trades and the trades need to be managed based on the market moves and positions accumulated over time. A 200%+ gain during a serious market decline is doable via an arbitrage between BRK-B and SPY using long-term options. 
Jas

Kirk Here:  I think there are errors in Jas Jain's thinking in the above missive.  See the data and you can decide.

This chart shows the raw data for BRK.B and SPY that includes dividends reinvested from Jan. 1, 1998.  This table shows BRKB returns by year back to Jan 1 1999 and those for Vanguard's S&P500 index fund.  Clearly BRKB out performed. in both my graph and my table.