-------- Original Message --------
Buffet Scam As a Scam Market Signal Offers Fantastic Speculative Opportunity
| Subject: | Buffet Scam As a Scam Market Signal Offers Fantastic Speculative Opportunity |
|---|---|
| Date: | Mon, 4 Mar 2013 06:25:53 -0800 |
| From: | Jas Jain <jas_jain |
Buffet Scam As a Scam Market Signal Offers Fantastic Speculative Opportunity
Since Warren Buffet bought Gen Re in June 1998 his scam is more and more like a mutual fraud and has a very high long-term correlation with S&P 500, a proxy for the Scam Market. Buffet Scam, BRK-B, is up 6% relative to the SPY over the period, but because it has no dividend, the total return of S&P 500 has out-performed Buffet Scam by some 25% over the past 14.7 years. Amazingly, the ratio of BRK-B to SPY has been a great signal for the market trouble, i.e., serious decline, ahead. Please see the two attached graphs.
Here is a Summary table:
Week Of
|
BRK-B
|
SPY
|
BRK-B % SPY
|
VIX
|
Comment
|
06/15/98
|
54.1
|
85.42
|
63.334
|
21.61
|
Buffet Buys Gen Re
|
03/06/00
|
27.4
|
110.61
|
24.772
|
21.24
|
Scam Market High
|
09/30/02
|
48.76
|
65.96
|
73.924
|
39.46
|
Scam Market Low
|
07/16/07
|
72.85
|
136.3
|
53.448
|
16.95
|
Scam Market
Near High |
10/20/08
|
74.26
|
79.3
|
93.644
|
79.13
|
Scam Market
Near Low |
04/23/12
|
80.56
|
137.95
|
58.398
|
16.32
|
Buffet Out-Perform
Means Trouble Ahead? |
02/25/13
|
102.05
|
152.11
|
67.090
|
15.36
|
Jas
Kirk Here: I think there are errors in Jas Jain's thinking in the above missive. See the data and you can decide.
This chart shows the raw data for BRK.B and SPY that includes dividends reinvested from Jan. 1, 1998. This table shows BRKB returns by year back to Jan 1 1999 and those for Vanguard's S&P500 index fund. Clearly BRKB out performed. in both my graph and my table.
Posts
2 comments:
Kirk, please check that date. Because of huge volatility in BRK-B/SPY the starting date is very important. I have mentioned several times in the past that the day Crook Buffet bought Gen Re with his Scam despite having a huge pile of cash he was flashing the SELL signal. Scam Lovers don't understand these things. Since the close of the week of 6/15/98, Buffet Scam has under-performed S&P 500 in total return. These days Buffet is in the business of pumping the Scam Market, i.e., he is talking his book.
Jas
Jas
Check the chart I posted. The PEAK ratio of BRKB to SPY in 1998 was 0.65. Today that ratio is 0.66. That means BRKB outperforms for any date chosen in 1998.
You may be right that now is a good time to sell but I sure don't see it from this data.
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