Thursday, September 15, 2011

Inflation at 3.8%; Core Inflation at 2.0%

Thursday, September 15, 2011
Consumer Price Index - August 2011

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad- based, with continuing increases in the indexes for gasoline, food, shelter, and apparel. The gasoline index rose for the 12th time in the last 14 months and led to a 1.2 percent increase in the energy index, while the food index rose 0.5 percent, its largest increase since March.
All items less food and energy up 2.0% year-over-year
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: RE: inflation news
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2011 08:04:28 -0700
From: Jas Jain

Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2011 07:17:12 -0700
Subject: inflation news
To: jas_jain
Jas - how come we keep hearing news about inflation ever so often though the fundamentals point the other way around.

Inflation and employment are known lagging indicators. YoY inflation rate has been very volatile over the past few years. That is why I look at 3-year and 5-year annualized rates. One has to be able to look into the future based on the fundamentals at hand, i.e., the future path of consumption, or the aggregate demand, by Americans. Interventions in the economy by the Fed and the Federal govt don't, and can't, change those fundamental factors. Americans would not be allowed to consume more than they produce forever, right? Right now the Federal govt is helping them do that, via deficit spending of 10% of the GDP per year, but how long this game can go on? Maybe one year, at most two years. What next? Deflationary depression when the aggregate demand goes down at 3-5% annual rate.
Jas

Kirk's Explore Portfolio TIPS as of      09/14/11  
CUSIP Value Paid Buy Date Interest $ Gain % Gain
912828PP9 $34,548 $30,846 3/24/2011 $173.86 $3,876 12.6%
912828MF4 $35,641 $29,847 1/11/2010 $631.65 $6,426 21.5%

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