Hulbert, Richard Russell - Giving up on Dow Theory

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Subject:	Re: Hulbert, Richard Russell - Giving up on Dow Theory?
Date:	Tue, 15 Feb 2011 04:59:16 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Hulbert, Richard Russell - Giving up on Dow Theory?

Kevin: "This [Russell's admission of failure] is pretty amazing stuff."

Not for a born-and-bred American dope! Didn't I tell you years ago that the guy should be ignored? The dope completely failed to notice the change from the old stock market to the current Scam Market. What guide could the stock market before 1995 be in forecasting the current Scam Market? The Scam Market exists primarily for the benefit of the Crooks. The future of an econo-political system headed by evildoers is not difficult to forecast.

Jas
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investing-without-making-any-forecasts-2011-02-11

The best laid plans...

Commentary: Don't bet all or nothing on any adviser or system

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Richard Russell made a remarkable confession earlier this week.

He said that he finds the financial markets to be so inscrutable that trying to time them is close to futile. He says that he's therefore decided to invest a good chunk of the accounts he manages in a mutual fund that has a static allocation to several uncorrelated asset classes.

Russell, of course, is the grandaddy of the investment advisory industry, having continuously published his Dow Theory Letters advisory service since 1958, more than 50 years ago. He has seen more bull and bear markets than almost any of the rest of us, and he has the cynicism that is borne of witnessing innumerable new strategies and approaches that have come onto the investment scene to great fanfare and then ultimately failed.

As an illustration of the mixed and divergent signals the market is sending, Russell writes: "I recently read the works of A. Gary Shilling and Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Forecast, and they provide really convincing reasons as to why we're going into deflation. I read Larry Edelson and a dozen other advisors and they provide excellent reasons why we're heading into hyperinflation."

I sympathize with Russell's argument. As fate would have it, I read his comments while at the World Money Show in Orlando, where I will be giving a couple of workshops. After listening to some of the other workshops at this conference, I was convinced that I'd be a fool to have any exposure whatsoever to the equity markets. Upon listening to other workshops, in contrast, I concluded that I should mortgage the house to put everything into the stock market.

Unfortunately, examining these advisers' track records goes only so far in helping us decide which of these viewpoints is correct. Even among the advisers with the very best long-term performances, there still is widespread disagreement.
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