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My Views On Indian Rupee (INR)
Indian Rupee is in the news these days. Appended are two posts on INR, one recently and one exchange with Sabri from last year. Sabri's recent view is, "I think rupee will cross 65, but by how much, difficult to guess." I don't play the game of 60, 65, 70, etc., because INR is headed to cross 100 once the Indian economy enters a recession to be followed by a depression. Recessions and depressions are inherent features of American-style finance capitalism whose secret sauce is to push consumption based on debt.
The most important thing to understand about India is that it is not an independent nation while China is. Changes in the American monetary policy affect India far more than it would affect China. India is lot more vulnerable to internal as well as external economic problems. India would be the first major casualty of bad American economic theory.
Jas
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June 2013
Stupid Move by RBI to Defend the Indian Rupee (INR) at 60 to USD
Despite all the claims by America's politicians, Federal Reserve has been manipulating the currency (USD) by keeping it too low against the basket of currencies and the rotten currencies outside the basket that includes the INR. The most overvalued currency among the basket of currencies still remains the Swissie (CHF), but currencies like INR are worthless except for the local usage in a sewer economy (a criminalized econo-political system) that the Indian economy really is. It is the hot money, foreign "investment," speculative capital from foreigners, that has kept the rupee high for the past several years.
Looks like RBI is unable to hold the line at 60. INR at 80 might be close to fair value, but currencies never stop at fair value when a directional move is underway. I have no clue as to when but in not too distant a future INR would slide thru the 100 level like a warm knife thru the butter.
Jas
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May 2012
Re: Currency Restrictions and More--RE: RBI 'measures' on rupee
Sabri: "Hey, I live in Mumbai and work at the RBI. But then, they do what they do without consulting with me. They have to take full measures, not such partial measures. They still don't have the guts to do such things, so this is what happens. I told them that they should expect 60 rupees per $1, if it goes like that. Don't know if they believed me."
Hello Sabri,
No one is stupid enough to listen to anyone who is long the US Treasury bonds and bullish on the US dollar at the current level. At 60 INR to a USD, the rupee would still be overvalued. Govt people, especially the central bankers, want "orderly" adjustments in the economy and markets when things are out of kilter. These control freaks want to show their authority. They want people to believe that they are in-charge. They want controlled free markets! They want controlled free markets! India's choices are extremely limited and the poor decision makers at RBI just want to keep their jobs. All politicians want to keep their jobs as long as they legally can.
Jas
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