Rosenberg On Ostriches Among American Economists and Anal-ysts.

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Subject:	Rosenberg On Ostriches Among American Economists and Anal-ysts.
Date:	Tue, 17 Aug 2010 08:08:47 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Rosenberg On Ostriches Among American Economists and Anal-ysts.

"It is only a commentary on the human condition and the innate need to be optimistic that the vast majority of economists, analysts, strategists and market commentators still seem to be acting like ostriches with their heads in the sand."

This is very much a part of being a born-and-bred American dope. It is very difficult to overcome this disability. History ignoramuses like Buffett and Limbaugh are optimistic about America's future just because it is America and America is special, or exceptional. The only thing exceptional about America these days is the exceptional arrogance and ignorance of born-and-bred Americans. One needs to study histories of many nations and civilizations to figure out what lies ahead for America and the Modern Western Civilization of which America has been the leading edge for some 100 years. Cycles move around and are never stationary. Andre Gunder Frank in ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age, published in 1998, not only fully foresaw the Rise of China, but also its domination over the West. He noticed and understood the Longer Wave Cycle by 1993. West is in a serious decline that would amount to fall. We would witness the full reversal of what happened over the past few centuries.  People like Buffett and Limbaugh are living in the past and don't want to face America's future that is dark indeed. They have the psychological need to be optimistic about America. Reality doesn't care! Un-doping of Americans would be a very painful process.

Jas

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David Rosenberg; 08/16/10:

"So far this meltdown in yields is only a "real economy" event, not a "price stability" or deflation event. The last time the yield on the 5-year TIPS was this low was back on March 10, 2008 when, amazingly, everyone was debating whether the economy was in a hard landing or a soft patch, and whether the near-20% selloff in the equity market at the time was a bear market or merely a correction. Well, history doesn't lie and we all know that in the ensuing year — the year after the TIPS yield touched zero — the equity market was down 40%. Suffice it to say that few saw that coming, and by and large, the folks that didn't see it coming are the same ones telling investors to hang onto their overweight equity positions today. Someone should really call the police.

It is only a commentary on the human condition and the innate need to be optimistic that the vast majority of economists, analysts, strategists and market commentators still seem to be acting like ostriches with their heads in the sand. Even the venerable Economist concludes that "on the current evidence don't expect America's recovery to grind to a halt" on page 12."

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