RE: Bob Brinker 5 Root Causes of a Bear Market Not Present

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Subject:	RE: Bob Brinker 5 Root Causes of a Bear Market Not Present
Date:	Mon, 28 Jun 2010 09:37:32 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

I don't follow Brinker except for occasional e-mails I get. Did Brinker warn his listeners about the Crash of Oct'07-Mar'09? Isn't Bob Brinker a born-and-bred American dope? Before you listen to, or read, someone this is the first test you need to perform. In my view, other than volatility we are in a long-term bear market where the US treasuries would out-perform the Scam Market by a wide margin. The Scam Market is where it was in 1998 and long-term US Treasury STRIPS have 200%+ gains since. During this period, Warren Buffett has turned into a Scam Lover and a Scam Pusher from being correctly cautious during late 1990s.  If one looks at the performance since Jun'98 Buffett-dopes have reasons to be pissed off, but they are not because they are thoroughly doped by the cult of personality very common in America and the world. Buffett's days are long past. Born-and-bred American dopes do not register CHANGE! We don't have the same system in America that we had 50 years ago, Mr. Buffett!! Next 50 years are going to be horrible for America and there would be no Buffett legacy because Buffet Scam would be where it was in early 1990s.
Jas
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Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2010 08:48:06 -0700
To: jas_jain
Subject: Bob Brinker 5 Root Causes of a Bear Market Not Present

From Kirk: Bob Brinker Market Outlook + 5 Root Causes of a Bear Market
Monday, June 28, 2010:  Brinker says none of his "five root causes of a bear Market" are present at this time. He elaborated on his "five root causes for a bear market" in detail during the May 22 Moneytalk show.

What are the root causes of a bear market?

1. Tight Money:  "That is when the Federal Reserve pulls in their horns, takes away the punch bowl, restricts the growth of the money supply. And money is harder to get, and as a result money price of money goes up....Do we have that now? No. Do we have the prospect of having that now? No."
2. Rising Interest Rates:  "I'm not talking about the federal funds rate going from 1 to 2. I'm talking about a meaningful rise in interest rates.....When we look at the rates today, they are low, low, low. Rising rates are not a problem as we look at the market place right now....... 
3. Hyperinflation, rising inflation. Do we have that? No... We don't have an inflation problem right now.
4. Rapid Economic Growth.   Do we have that? Not on your life. Not even close......Some people are worried about a double dip.
5. Over-valuation:  "When stock prices are so high relative to valuations they're on the moon like they were in January of 2000. Well, not true. We don't have over-valuation right now. We have good valuation right now."

Brinker concluded:  

"So all five of those are no's. We don't have tight money. We don't have rising rates problems. We don't have rising inflation problems. We don't have rapid growth in the economy and we certainly don't have over-valuation in the stock market......Out of five possible root causes of a bear market, we have zero. That is why I am of the opinion that we are not in a bear market."

 

... So who is right, Jain or Brinker?