| Subject: | Forecasts Based On ECRI Data |
|---|---|
| Date: | Sun, 6 Jun 2010 11:47:41 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
Forecasts Based On ECRI Data
Kirk: "ECRI has not and is is not currently predicting a double dip recession."
Please see below as to how bad Guru Lakshman Achuthan is in forecasting a recession before it begins. I did a better job with ECRI data in 2007 than did Guru Achuthan. Kirk and the rest, you be the judge.
Jas
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Six months before the recession began
NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was flat in the latest week, with its growth rate slipping but still near a three-year high, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) held at 142.4 in the week ended May 25 from the prior week, as higher interest rates and jobless claims were offset by higher stock prices.
The annualized growth rate in the weekly index edged down to 6.3 percent from 6.4 percent the previous week.
"With WLI growth holding near a three-year high, the U.S. economic growth outlook remains positive," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the institute.
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Four months before the recession began
Jul 27, 2007 2:58 PM
Reply from ECRI (Lakshman, I presume) to comments by Jas Jain:
We'll see. Things have shifted some since March, including the fact that the LHPI has declined for the last 4 months following its earlier rise. This may be a signal of a fresh cyclical decline in home prices, or a continuation of the earlier decline - depending on actual data on the level (not year-over-year growth) of median real home prices, which is still coming in. We are looking into this and should have a better sense in a month or so. In any case, the scenario of housing weakness soon causing a recession remains unlikely.
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Three months before the recession began (Jas Jain's comments, partly highlighted)
"Thus far I have viewed ECRI's economic forecasts as representing the conventional Larry Kudlow Goldilocks Wall Street view of the economy and stock market."
That is the American Way! Who wants to be unpopular in a democracy where popularity is the prized virtue?
High stock prices are good for everyone and high home prices are even better for all. Fed wants to put a floor on the combined value of stocks and homes because if it can't then it is all down hill.
I think that WLI is indirectly a measure of liquidity in the system. The key level to watch is 138.3, a level first reached in Jan'06. No move in the index in 20 months and that means the recession is almost there.
Kirk Here: Jas, you have been predicting the US economy would melt down and collapse since I met you in the 1990s. You have harassed ECRI for years when they were right about economic recovery and called them names. So of course you predicted we would enter the last recession before ECRI made the switch since you were forecasting it all along. If you want to debate this more, then use the comments section
Posts
2 comments:
I don't understand the format of this blog. Is it Jas Jain's blog, or is it Kirk's? Why can't Jas just have his own blog? Blogging isn't rocket science. Failing that, why can't Jas find someone who will publish his rants without adding snide editorial comments? I just don't understand it.
Please observe that under "Special Notes" on the right hand side it says
Jas Jain is not Kirk. Kirk created this blog for Jas to post his thoughts and to record selected Jas Jain emails and predictions.
So far, I've done just that, recorded selected emails and predictions. I add my opinions as I see fit and censor those too bigoted, nasty or rude to attach my name to in any way. Jas and anyone else is welcome to post here just like they did at Suite101 where Jas used to post before I left and they shut down the discussion forums.
If you don't like my comments, then it is easy... don't read them. As you say, rocket science.
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