| Subject: | Re: Deflation |
|---|---|
| Date: | Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:29:36 -0700 |
| From: | Jas Jain |
Sword: "Inflation will have its day, just not imminently. The national debt is set to double over the next several years. Our government has no choice but to destroy the value of the dollar. Leave it to good 'ole American ingenuity to find a way to accomplish that… there is no other way to pay off the debt at this point. People are also a lot happier seeing their home price stabilize despite 10% inflation compared to say 5% loss in value with no inflation. Stupid is as stupid does."
I need to remind myself often enough that I must be pretty stupid. Otherwise, how could I fail to figure out that the market must oblige the "people" and that the policymakers would successfully borrow at lot at very low rates and then inflate away the accumulated debt. It stands to reason that the market would do what the majority of people and policymakers want. Stupid me holding long-term Treasuries not recognizing the power of the people and their leaders to make the markets succumb to their wishes. My stupid behavior has its roots in challenging that power.
How could Marc Faber, who has been trashing the US Treasuries and calling for hyperinflation in the US for at least seven years, Jim Rogers, who has had his ass kicked when he shorted the Treasuries in 2008, and Peter Schiff, a moron in class by himself (forecasting Dow 4,000 and hyperinflation at the same time, when only one of the two has some likelihood), all be wrong? Rogers made another dopey call few month back when he recommended buying sugar because when people get affluent they it more sugar! Mister Rogers, you wanna bet if affluent Americans eat more sugar or the poorest?! Not surprisingly, sugar, after going up for few weeks is now down 20% from his call and could go down 50% once the global depression is here. The three leaders of inflationists are total morons when it comes to understanding how the monetary policy and the economy in the US actually work. How come no inflation after Helicopter Ben "printed money?" You mean wait, for how long? Five more years? What if it doesn't happen by then?? Inflationists keep insisting that inflation would happen, but it CANNOT happen before the collapse of the global financial system (we came close) and 80-90% drop in the Scam Markets around the world from their peak. Deflation and collapse of the financial system first and only after that high inflation in the US has high probability. That is what Faber, Rogers and Schiff don't get. What would happen first high inflation or outright deflation?
Kirk Here.
Speaking of "dopey calls" see my all time "Jas Jain favorite" =>Bear Market Model
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