Quote of the Year: “It is a bad behavior problem.” by Rick Santelli on CNBC

Another "cheery message" from Jas Jain.
-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Quote of the Year: “It is a bad behavior problem.” by Rick Santelli on CNBC
Date:	Wed, 3 Dec 2008 12:38:42 -0800
From:	Jas Jain
To:

Quote of the Year: “It is a bad behavior problem.” by Rick Santelli on CNBC

[video at Rick Santelli's "Chicago Tea Party in July" Rant]

He was talking about the current debt-related economic Crisis in the US. My negativity about America, for the past 10+ years, had everything to do with my observations that Americans, led by self-serving Corporate Crooks guided by Wall Street, were behaving very badly in the areas of economics, investments and politics. When I inquired into why were Americans, especially the so-called “educated,” behaving badly I concluded that Americans have been systematically bred into dopes-for-life by the same self-serving Crooks, led by what I later (in 2003) called Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC). These Crooks have total control of the Fed and the USG in addition to the minds of Americans via propaganda. Obama is nothing more and nothing less than a slave of these Crooks. Can you imagine that these Crooks want to push more debt when pushing debt caused the problem in the first place?

There CANNOT be any hope for America until these Crooks are hunted down and systematically destroyed. Only violence, not voting, can accomplish that. Anyone who thinks that America has hit on the best political system in the form of modern democracy, as it is actually practiced in America and India, is a moron. Can't you see the results?

Democracy = Domination of Money (with Crooks in control of the money). Blood will conquer money! VIOLENCE HAS BEEN THE MEANS TO SETTLE DEEP DISPUTES IN AMERICA.

Jas

Violence? I prefer a "perp walk" Jas and a public trial followed by jail time and disgorgement of any ill gotten gains.

We've clearly seen stock manipulation via naked shorting. Buying or selling securities to manipulate their price for a profit rather than invest long or short is supposed to be illegal. The idea you could buy "fire insurance" on financial companies then burn them down to collect on the insurance should be illegal under current manipulation laws. Not sure how they got away with it.

• [video at Rick Santelli's "Chicago Tea Party in July" Rant]

Jim Rogers is Short Long Term US Treasuries and Long Silver

This articles titled Jim Rogers says get rid of dollars, buy silver says he expects the actions by governments around the globe to save their economies will cause inflation and crash the US dollar. As such, he is short long-term US Treasuries (US Treasury Rates at a Glance ) and long silver.

INTERNATIONAL. Legendary global investor Jim Rogers believes the recent dollar gains are temporary and are not based on fundamentals.

"The fact that the dollar is gaining rapidly is only temporary," Rogers recently told a group of private bank clients.

"Within a year you'll have to get rid of the dollar," he said.

Rogers has spent a career being one step ahead of mainstream investment thinking. Amongst his many accomplishments, Rogers was co-founder with George Soros of Quantum Fund. During his ten years with the fund, the portfolio gained more than 4,000%, while the S&P rose less than 50%.

All hedge funds were short on the dollar, Rogers said, but because there has been a rapid increase in the dollar's value against other currencies, fund managers want to buy them now.

"This is temporary, Rogers says. "Fundamentally it is a drama."

Rogers also said US government bonds are extremely overvalued. "They are "the world's last bubble."

The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for keeping alive "zombie banks" that should be allowed to fail, he said

The Japanese government refused to let financial institutions fail in the 1990s. "It's 18 years later and their stock market is 75% or 80% below what it was 18 years ago," he added.

"I know we are going to get aggressive rate cuts everywhere, that's why I'm long short-term government bonds in the US, but shorting long-term government bonds because it's not going to help, it's going to add to inflation."

Rogers admits that silver has been particularly battered down, 35% this year, and perhaps that is why he thinks this precious metal will outperform gold as investors turn to the metal as a hedge against inflation.

“Silver will do better than gold,” Rogers recently said. “It’s been beaten down horribly. If you put a gun to my head and said you have to buy one, I would buy silver rather than gold.”


Gold may drop as central banks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sell the metal to raise cash, said Rogers, who correctly predicted in April 2006 that gold would reach US$1,000 an ounce. The IMF in May ratified a plan that included proposals to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold to reduce a budget deficit.

“The IMF has gigantic amounts of gold. Maybe gold is going to go down for a while. If gold does go down, I’m going to buy more,” Rogers said.

For more, see:

• US Treasury Rates at a Glance
  
  
• World Stock Markets at a Glance
  
  
• ECRI WLI Growth Rate Plunge Continues to New Record Low
  
  
• Best 1-Year CD Rates with FDIC
  
  
• I-Bond and Series EE Bond Rates for November 2008

.

Taleb: worst period since the American Revolution?

Jas is correct that he has been "warning" about a Great Depression for over a decade. Below is his latest email reminding us of this.

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	FW -- RE: Taleb: worst period since the American Revolution?
Date:	Wed, 22 Oct 2008 04:32:56 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Link
Nasim Nicholas Taleb interview on PBS News hour. He is very concerned we may be on the brink of the worst crisis since the American Revolution. Yes much worse than the Great Depression even.

Wasn't some crank shouting this warning for years now? What sort of morons couldn’t see thru financial manipulators and evildoers like Greenspan and Bernanke, whose whole game plan was Pushing Debt? Morally bankrupt American dopes who couldn’t see gross immorality being practiced by their leaders. And it continues to this day.

There are consequences to allowing criminal gangs to take control of the country and breeding dopes. It will end in the collapse of the American system and nothing less.

Jas

Of course, Warren Buffett has been correctly in US Treasuries for the last decade with his money not in Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett avoided the internet/telecom/NASDAQ bubble followed by the real estate debt bubble. Last week, Buffett announced it was time to buy equities. See:

Friday, October 17, 2008
Warren Buffett Buy Signal

Inflationists Please Note: Commodities Down Across the Board (Worst Week In 50 Years)

The latest from Jas Jain
-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Inflationists Please Note: Commodities Down Across the Board (Worst Week In 50 Years)
Date:	Sat, 4 Oct 2008 06:24:01 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

DJ-AIG Indexes	3-Oct	Week	YTD
Commodity Fut	159.017	-10.1%	-14%
Total Return	318.25	-10.0%	-13%
Energy	248.814	-9.5%	-7%
Petroleum	462.175	-12.5%	-3%
Livestock	46.355	-6.0%	-19%
Grains	55.3	-14.5%	-21%
Industrl Metals	156.54	-9.5%	-18%
Precious Metals	119.386	-8.6%	-9%
Softs	48.089	-9.8%	-20%
Gold	835.5	-5.6%	+0%

As I have said repeatedly gold will out-perform all commodities and it is a currency and not a commodity like silver and platinum are. Here is my flow chart from early 2008:

US Recession -- > Commodities Bust (WE ARE HERE) -- > Depression -- > Deflation -- > Greater Depression.

Inflationists and commodities bulls are ignorant of how the economy really and monetary policy really works. They confuse bubbles with secular trend or change. No, Fed is NOT Printing Money. It is just helping the bankers and financiers at the expense of the rest. Under capitalism capitalists rule! And gangs are in-charge.

Jas

Important Economic and Political Sequence to Keep In Mind

With the markets now officially in a bear market, Jas Jain is predicting this is just the start of something much worse.

Market	9/4 close	Change
DJIA	11,188.23	-344.65
NASDAQ	2,259.04	-74.69
S&P500	1,236.83	-38.15

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	The Important Economic and Political Sequence to Keep In Mind
Date:	Fri, 5 Sep 2008 06:01:19 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

The following is what I sent out couple of months ago:

<<US Recession -- > Commodities Bust -- > Depression -- > Deflation -- > Greater Depression.

I want to disabuse American faithful of any thought that the Fed can prevent the above scenario. Beyond helping Bankrupters and Fraudsters the Fed is impotent. “The US taxpayers are the losers of last resort”!>>

To this I can add:

Global recession -- > Global Depression -- > Govt failures in many countries, including India -- > Collapse of the current US political system (approx. in 20 years).

All this because of the abuse of debt as never before in history. None of the above would have to happen if America was not controlled by the worst financial criminal gang in all of history.

Jas

Hope Jas Jain is wrong. Sadly, he is more right than I thought, especially about the crooks who did it all for fees and high salaries rather than the health of the companies there were entrusted to run.

I think we could change the law that NO company stock options or shares can be sold by insiders until after they leave the companies they work at. Then set it so those shares vest over 10 years so they have incentive to build companies with LASTING business models.

This would work not only for the tech companies where the abuse is ongoing, but at the financial companies too. I believe the owners at World Savings sold that company to Wachovia Bank knowing they sold a ton of loans to Californians who would be unable to pay them back. I also think the guys running Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac knew they were backing loans with all sorts of problems, but they were drawing huge salaries from profits to look the other way. If they were paid a "reasonable" salary then given stock for the rest that they could ONLY sell after they were gone over a 10 year vesting period, you KNOW they would have made sure the loans they bought were made to people who had the ability to pay them back.

Live market charts:

DJIA - S&P500 - NASDAQ
NYSE Composite - QQQQ - Russell 2000
Russell 3000 - Wilshire 5000
Crude Oil -

Jas, the Prophet of Doom and Gloom

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: FWC – Re: Boomer bubble deflating . . . Housing crash hits baby boomers
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2008 08:26:09 -0700
From: Jas Jain
To:

From: XXX
Subject: Boomer bubble deflating . . .
Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2008 06:24:20 -0700

Housing crash hits baby boomers

Home-price declines will eat into boomer retirement nest eggs: report

http://tinyurl.com/4enelg

Baby Doomers' delusion deflating! These born-and-bred American dopes were made to believe that Asset Inflation is wealth creation. What a bunch of economic morons. The Greater Depression was long baked in the cake, via scams and debt-induced bubbles, and now these Doomers must suffer in their old age. Misery couldn't come to a more deserving group of people.

There is absolutely nothing that the Fed or the USG can do to avert the Greater Depression. Rule of the Crooks and breeding dopes, wholesale, has consequences. Doomers were bred, with idiotic beliefs, to lead to America's demise and they have done their part.

Jas, the Prophet of Doom and Gloom

This is sad. Does he have any friends?

Why Buy Cisco Stock?

To the knuckleheads also known as Cisco System's board of directors,

Are you aware that $1B of insider selling needs the equivalant 1,000 investors investing $1,000,000 each to offset the selling pressure?

Click this chart below from the SEC Form 4 Sec Filings for Cisco Insider Trading and Stock Options to see the full details.

Insiders sold enough shares to create 1,000 millionaires!

I owned Cisco stock in the past for a nice ride from $17 to $24. I sold it after the ride as I thought there were other companies who were far more "shareholder friendly."

These days many technology stocks, such as yours, are way off their 2000 highs so I am again taking a look at Cisco Systems for potential purchse.

Before I buy Cisco, I would like to know:

• Why should I invest my hard earned money into a stock where the insiders have sold nearly billion dollars worth of shares with only $424,802 in purchases?

and

• Are all you insiders waiting for the "3-gap-play" to buy at $17.50?
  
• If so, why wasn't there a mad rush of insiders buying at $17.50 the last time the stock was that low?

Maybe I will join you in buying at $17.50 if there is a rash of insider buying greater than insider selling. Otherwise, I may buy shares in companies where insiders have more confidence for the long term.

Compare Cisco to Valence (VLNC), a company I have dollar cost averaged into since selling my Cisco stock. Valence has nothing but insider buying.

Funny thing: I've made money on the Valence! This seems to confirm that insiders know real value and will invest their own money accordingly.

I have a hard time resisting a GREEN company with great growth opportunity when insiders are putting their own money into the stock rather than cashing in low priced options.

For more on Valence, see my articles "OEMtek Uses Valence Batteries for 100 MPG Prius Conversion" and "Valence Technology: A Green Stock with Potential."

Feel free to send me a note when you insiders at Cisco Systems start buying your own shares again using your own money rather than shareholder money.

Disclaimer. I have been accumulating Valence in my newsletter and personal portfolios and have very good profits already at the current price of $2.97. I plan to continue to trade around this core position in an attempt to increase my overall return. I expect Valence to be a very volatile stock.

Conference Board Says No Recession For January

U.S. Jan. leading economic indicators index falls 0.1%

Jas Jain says we are in a recession. The Conference Board disagrees.

By Robert Schroeder
Last update: 10:00 a.m. EST Feb. 21, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The index of leading U.S. economic indicators dropped by 0.1% in January, the Conference Board reported Thursday, as weaker stock prices and housing data drove the index's fourth consecutive decline. At the same time, the coincident economic indicator index rose 0.1% in January, the business research organization said. That index measures where the economy is now. The group's labor economist said the rise in the coincident index shows that the economy wasn't in recession in January but that weak growth can be expected in the future.

==> High CD Yields with FDIC <==

.

WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead

Note this is an email from Jas Jain.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2008 10:41:01 -0800
From: Jas Jain

February 01,2008

ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead

JB: “The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 131.1 for the week ending January 25 from a downwardly revised 135.7 (previously 135.8). The smoothed, annualized growth rate, however, decreased to -7.1% from an unrevised -6.1%. This ends two straight weeks of improvement for the growth rate.”

The CRASH in WLI level to 131.1 from 135.7 is not just another confirmation that the economy has already been in recession but the first confirmation of my forecast of this recession sliding easily into a depression. How so? It is a growing series and it is back to where it was 50 months ago. This behavior was last seen between 1970-1982, a period of very bad recessions and deep recessions. In 2001, it was seen in September when the economy was already in recession for 6 months (the worst of WLI is always seen after the recession and during the early period of a recovery!). Tells you how leading the indicator really is; as a matter of fact, it has been turned into a lagging indicator by back-adjusting (or back-testing)!

Once and for all, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI would be proven to be a bubble-meister and a propagandist and not a scientist. Dismal science has a lot to do with human behavior of economists and not due to anything inherent. Most of the economists that have access to the public via MSM are employed by businesses for the purpose of propaganda, e.g., NAR and CAR.

Never look to an economist for the forecast of recessions and depressions!

Jas

ECRI has not called for a recession yet, but Jas Jain has been calling for a depression for a decade.

See

• ECRI WLI Falls to a 6-year Low. The WLI fell due to higher jobless claims, weaker housing activity and lower stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "WLI growth has dropped back to the six-year low seen in early January," Achuthan said. "While the economy and employment did continue to grow through the end of 2007, the window of opportunity to avert a U.S. recession is about to slam shut."
  
• ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy

==> High CD Yields with FDIC <==

From Bursting of Property Bubble, Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming

From: shell (sam warner)
Date Posted: January 19, 2008 at 00:43:15
Subject: julian robertson interview

Legendary Funds Manager Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming From Bursting of Property Bubble

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the "old-timer" funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted "utter global collapse" as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble. Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate. Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

Even more worrisome, he thinks central banks around the globe out of desperation will try to re-inflate the world economy with more liquidity that will create an inflationary spiral unseen in the economic history of mankind. "Where does it end?", Insana asked Robertson. "Utter global collapse," he answered. But not just economic collapse ... collapse of epic proportions. Collapse and disintegration of all infrastructure, including government. Inflation will run into the double and triple digits. "Food production will fall. People will be carrying around U.S. dollars in wheelbarrows like Germany ," he said.

There will be "total collapse of public infrastructure. Total collapse of medical care systems. All public pension plans, Social Security will collapse. All corporate pension plans will collapse."

"The American consumer is effectively now supporting the rest of the planet," he continued. "Consumption rates in all other nations are falling, have fallen to the point that the tax revenues to governments, that the business and industries those nation states are providing is now a net negative number relative to total debt service and public cost, that this exists in virtually every nation state on the planet now."
And for much of this "doom", interestingly, he blames the Bush-Cheney "regime". "They have now consolidated power and money on the planet to the maximum extent possible. The planet's net liquidity, that is its, net free cash flow. Is now a negative number. The planet is not simply sinking into a sea of red ink; it is already sunk. The people just don't realize it yet," he said.

According to Robertson, "the Bush-Cheney regime is preparing the nation for transition from democracy into dictatorship because a dictatorship will be necessary to control, in 5 years time, food and water riots."

He said "the federal government, that part of Patriot II Act, the internal exile, that the government is going to have to build now huge detention compounds on federal lands, probably in the West where the land is available, to potentially house 50 million or more citizens that will be in financial ruin."

In 10 years time, whoever is left will be effectively starting again, he said. "More importantly, and I'm trying to think how we imply this or how we express this to the people, what extraordinary times we are living in and how the destruction of the planet has been engineered by the Bushonian Cabal from 1980 to 1992, and then from 2001 to present, which has effectively destroyed the economic liquidity of the planet," he said.

Robertson ended the interview by saying that he hopes he is not alive to see this. "The lucky ones are the ones who are my age now," he said

=====

Kirk here... He sounds like Jas Jain!

The Big Enchilada – Prices in LA Co. dropping at 19.2% Annual Rate

Jas Jain has been saying the housing market in Santa Clara Valley would drop for a decade. My house would have to fall by 50% to reach the price it was when I first met Jas Jain and he told me property prices were going to crumble.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: The Big Enchilada – Prices in LA Co. dropping at 19.2% Annual Rate
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:59:39 -0800
From: Jas Jain

--The Big Enchilada – Prices in LA Co. dropping at 19.2% Annual Rate

According to Radar Logic, the price per sq ft (PPSF) of homes recorded in 4 weeks ending on 11/14/07 in LA Co. fell at an annual rate of 19.2% during the 7-month period (mid-Apr to mid-Nov).

That is a big enchilada, folk.

As the Scam Market turns nasty, the Silly.con Valley will see 25%+ annual rate drop in prices. The Chosen Area syndrome has to end one day. The Crooks’ Game, including Scam Options, will be ending and they were the ones buying into the Chosen Areas. The Chosen Areas are full of Crooks and their underlings. This also applies to Manhattan.

Jas

All that time I've lived here in Los Altos, since 1994, I have saved the cost of renting. Had I listened to Jas Jain's "real estate advice and predictions" back when I met him in 1998, I would have missed a near double in equity.

Add all the money saved by not renting to the equity I have gained and I just chuckle when I read his posts and emails about the crash in Silicon Valley (and Manhattan for that matter) real estate.

Jas Jain Rewrites History

Jas "forgot" to mention in this email that he has been forecasting a "depression right around the corner" every year I've known him... dating back a decade to 1998!!!

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Bloomberg: “Worst Start For the Dow Since 1904”
Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2008 16:41:00 -0800
From: Jas Jain

--

Bloomberg: “Worst Start For the Dow Since 1904”

Holy Pig!

S&P 500 has given up all the gain of 2007 in the first three trading days. It closed at the same level as on 12/22/06.

What if 2008 ends up being the worst year since 1904? And 2009 worse than 2008! Who knows how long can the record continue.

It is lucky to take care of after-tax annual expenses in the first three days of trading, at least on paper. :-) It could turn out to be the case of easy come easy go.

I have been forecasting depression during 2008-10 and I feel confident about that forecast based on the recent developments.

Jas

Twice a day a stuck clock is right. How often is a the yearly "depression forecast" correct?