WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead

Note this is an email from Jas Jain.

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Subject: ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2008 10:41:01 -0800
From: Jas Jain

February 01,2008

ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead

JB: “The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 131.1 for the week ending January 25 from a downwardly revised 135.7 (previously 135.8). The smoothed, annualized growth rate, however, decreased to -7.1% from an unrevised -6.1%. This ends two straight weeks of improvement for the growth rate.”

The CRASH in WLI level to 131.1 from 135.7 is not just another confirmation that the economy has already been in recession but the first confirmation of my forecast of this recession sliding easily into a depression. How so? It is a growing series and it is back to where it was 50 months ago. This behavior was last seen between 1970-1982, a period of very bad recessions and deep recessions. In 2001, it was seen in September when the economy was already in recession for 6 months (the worst of WLI is always seen after the recession and during the early period of a recovery!). Tells you how leading the indicator really is; as a matter of fact, it has been turned into a lagging indicator by back-adjusting (or back-testing)!

Once and for all, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI would be proven to be a bubble-meister and a propagandist and not a scientist. Dismal science has a lot to do with human behavior of economists and not due to anything inherent. Most of the economists that have access to the public via MSM are employed by businesses for the purpose of propaganda, e.g., NAR and CAR.

Never look to an economist for the forecast of recessions and depressions!

Jas

ECRI has not called for a recession yet, but Jas Jain has been calling for a depression for a decade.

See

• ECRI WLI Falls to a 6-year Low. The WLI fell due to higher jobless claims, weaker housing activity and lower stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "WLI growth has dropped back to the six-year low seen in early January," Achuthan said. "While the economy and employment did continue to grow through the end of 2007, the window of opportunity to avert a U.S. recession is about to slam shut."
  
• ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy

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