ECRI Further Confirms My recession Call; Shilling and Gross Join

Jas Claims Bill Gross and Gary Shilling now join him in a recession call.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: ECRI Further Confirms My recession Call; Shilling and Gross Join
Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2007 08:27:03 -0800
From: Jas Jain

December 21, 2007

ECRI Further Confirms My recession Call; (Gary) Shilling and (Bill) Gross Join

ECRI’s Weekly Leading Indicator (WLI):

Date Index WLI
. Level Growth

23-Apr-04 136.0 +9.4
8-Jun-07 143.7 +6.7
14-Dec-07 136.1 -4.8

Please note that WLI is a growing series, over time, like the real GDP. For the index to be at the same level as 3.6 years ago is extremely negative, almost forecasting a depression rather than a recession. Also, note the two growth rates when index was at the same levels. Please don’t expect the econ-meisters at ECRI to forecast a recession until several months into the recession. Their evasive and vague language is the best proof of their motive. They have never heard of the term probability (have never used it in connection with recession).

Bill Gross and Gary Shilling also say that the economy is in recession. In recessions forecasting there are few leaders and lots of followers among the economists. Economists suffer from the herd mentality more than most professionals. They feel secure in the herd!

Jas--