Confusing Weekly Data with Long Term Predictions

Today's email from Jas Jain is critical of ECRI ( The Economic Cycle Research Institute), a New York-based independent forecasting group. Jas seems to have trouble distinguishing between comments on weekly changes and long term forecasts.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: ECRI’s Unrelenting Mantra of “stronger housing activity” During 07/06/07-11/16/07
Date: Fri, 28 Dec 2007
From: Jas Jain

ECRI’s Unrelenting Mantra of “stronger housing activity” During 07/06/07-11/16/07

Nov 16, 2007: “The effect of higher rates and jobless claims was partially offset by stronger housing activity and higher stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.”

"NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged up due to higher stock prices, lower interest rates and stronger housing activity..."

"NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters)...The fall in the index was partly offset by stronger housing activity, Achuthan said."

“NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week due to measures of stronger housing activity, lower jobless claims and higher stock prices…”

“NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week due to lower interest rates and stronger housing activity…”

Talk about clueless economists, or dismal scientists. Where they blind to the reality or were they purposely misleading the public?

Jas

It is clear to me ECRI was commenting on what changed over the prior week that caused the weekly index to go up or down. Sadly, this seems completely lost on Jas Jain who has been wrong predicting a depression for the last decade while ECRI has been correct with its predictions on recessions for nearly 20 years that I have data for.