Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis

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-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis
Date:	Tue, 27 Aug 2013 15:24:00 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

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Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis

The following, in black, is from a speech Ms Yell-en gave in July 2008, six months after the recession began and two months before the Crisis hit. My responses are in dark blue. It is a complete lie that no one knew or could have known in July 2008 as to what was likely to happen.

http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/yellen-speeches/2008/july/yellen-risks-prospects-us-economy-san-diego/

Outlook
"Now I'd like to pull all of these threads together to give you my outlook for the economy. Activity has been weak since late last year, and, given the three shocks I've discussed, I expect the economy to grow only modestly for the remainder of the year, but to pick up next year."

The actual GDP (Annual Rate):

2008Q3	-3.66%
2008Q4	-8.89%
2009Q1	-5.25%
2008Q2	-0.31%

"The earlier policy easing by the Federal Reserve will help cushion the economy from some of the effects of the shocks, and the fiscal stimulus program is helping at present. Over time, the drag from housing will wane and credit conditions should improve.
"On the inflation front, the predominant problem so far has been soaring food and energy prices. Headline inflation is likely to remain much higher than I would like over the next few quarters."

Headline inflation rate, YoY, collapsed over the nest 15 months.

Aug-08	5.37
Sep-08	4.94
Oct-08	3.66
Nov-08	1.07
Dec-08	0.09
Jan-09	0.03
Feb-09	0.24
Mar-09	0.38
Apr-09	0.74
May-09	1.28
Jun-09	1.43
Jul-09	2.10
Aug-09	1.48
Sep-09	1.29
Oct-09	0.18

"My best guess, which could easily be wrong, is that, consistent with futures prices, commodity prices will level off and cease to put direct upward pressure on headline inflation."

Commodity prices, especially the crude oil, collapsed.
She is a clueless bimbo who does and says what Crooks want people at the Fed to do and say. Fed is there to serve the Crooks and she is a reliable agent of the Crooks. The proof is in the pudding. Guess who dominate the ranks of the Crooks in America?
Jas

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"Core inflation has been better contained, but has still been running a bit higher than I would like. In the next few quarters, I wouldn't be surprised if it runs modestly higher, as businesses pass some of their higher energy and transportation costs on to customers.

"By early next year, however, I expect that, assuming commodity prices level off, core as well as headline inflation will moderate, as more slack in labor and product markets emerges."

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Democracy and Group Politics In America & India

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-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Democracy and Group Politics In America and India
Date:	Mon, 8 Jul 2013 09:12:36 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

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Democracy and Group Politics In America and India

Dean: "Jas, The current issue of Economist has an article discussing the issue of democracy's failure to address India's ills, despite clean elections.  Roughly speaking, it appears the caste system and the like transcend democracy there.  I can see how you would be quite critical of democracy and favor a philosopher king."

Hello Dean,

I have never favored philosopher king; it must be your own idea of my views because of my criticism of democracy that is failing in many countries, including America, and is heading for a massive failure that is contingent on the next global depression. Since you can't think of a better alternative to democracy you keep on bringing this philosopher king, near impossibility in practice.  Democracies are not as robust as people think and definitely not as good as people have been made to believe. They don't last hundreds of years (no country has had the popular democracies of today, the voting franchise extended to all, for hundred years).

Group politics is inherent in a democracy, especially in multicultural societies like America, India and South Africa. Caste, or tribal, politics is a subset of group politics that I have commented on in the past and is the most enduring of the group politics. In India people are very aware of and talk about the caste politics while in America equivalent group politics are not openly discussed. Today, the victims of the group politics in America are white Christians, in general, and white Christian men, in particular, as their traditional values are being systematically destroyed. I consider it a very dangerous situation that would explode in an economic depression, something that the policymakers don't have anyway to forestall forever.

Economic, political and social conditions in India are far worse than in America and it is futile to compare the two countries because of their radically different histories, as well as the present conditions, and there are very few lessons to be learned for one from the other. Politically, India has had a troubled history for some thousand years and its glory days, and spread of its influence, were in the middle of the first millennia. No country is more responsible for the present economic and political system in India than America. The British didn't leave because of Gandhi' movement or anything other than the American pressure. British rule in India and elsewhere was against American interests and conditions were put on the British during the WW II. The form of the American Empire is different than that of the British Empire, but America replaced Great Britain as the global economic hegemon. Just as the British Empire lasted slightly over a hundred years the same would be true of the American Empire whose beginning can be traced to 1917, American entry into WW I to defeat Germany, a contender for an empire, and Wilson's propaganda of "making the world safe for democracy."

Religion of Democracy

I had thought that it was my own conclusion, but just a few days ago I read the same conclusion in a book—The Old Regime and the French Revolution—by that genius on the subject of democracy, Alexis de Tocqueville. (Tocqueville was going to write a book about Indian society but the book was only half finished because he couldn't make the planned trip to India to complete it; some of the notes from the manuscript, based on the available information to him, are quite interesting). The proselytizing nature of democracy is not in doubt, first by the French and later by Americans under the guise of "making the world safe for democracy," a codeword for making the world more accessible and profitable for American capitalists, an essence of the American Empire. Democracy and the big money go hand-in-hand and no wonder that the hidden god of this godless religion is mammon.

The current spread of the religion is based on a Big American Lie: All men are created equal. It is inherently a dishonest ideology. Americans equate democracy to freedom and liberty a subject on which Tocqueville disagrees vehemently. Both in America and France overthrow of the king led to lot more centralization of authority under the cover of the rule of the people and an increasing welfare state over time, something one would expect in a popular democracy to attract votes.

Ills of Democracy—Division, Dishonesty, Destruction and Degradation

First, and most importantly, it divides the population. The best example is division of the voting population into conservatives and liberals in America. People with common concerns and interests are on the opposite sides. It encourages dishonest behavior, especially among business and political leaders, and over time it trickles down to the general population. It destroys traditions that have been developed over centuries and millennia. It makes people more dependent on govt than independent (Tocqueville described this dependence that fits present day American govt to a tee). People in America and India maybe materially better off today but as human beings they are more degraded compared to their grandmothers and grandfathers. I certainly don't think that I am a superior person than my grandmothers, both poor young widows under the British Raj, and there is no chance that I am going to exceed their accomplishments (some 150 descendents, most of whom are successful). 

A man who is a lover of democracy is a thoroughly brainwashed individual and is in denial of the facts on the ground and history of human institutions.

Jas

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