Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis

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-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis
Date:	Tue, 27 Aug 2013 15:24:00 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

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Janet Yellen Two Months Before the Crisis

The following, in black, is from a speech Ms Yell-en gave in July 2008, six months after the recession began and two months before the Crisis hit. My responses are in dark blue. It is a complete lie that no one knew or could have known in July 2008 as to what was likely to happen.

http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/yellen-speeches/2008/july/yellen-risks-prospects-us-economy-san-diego/

Outlook
"Now I'd like to pull all of these threads together to give you my outlook for the economy. Activity has been weak since late last year, and, given the three shocks I've discussed, I expect the economy to grow only modestly for the remainder of the year, but to pick up next year."

The actual GDP (Annual Rate):

2008Q3	-3.66%
2008Q4	-8.89%
2009Q1	-5.25%
2008Q2	-0.31%

"The earlier policy easing by the Federal Reserve will help cushion the economy from some of the effects of the shocks, and the fiscal stimulus program is helping at present. Over time, the drag from housing will wane and credit conditions should improve.
"On the inflation front, the predominant problem so far has been soaring food and energy prices. Headline inflation is likely to remain much higher than I would like over the next few quarters."

Headline inflation rate, YoY, collapsed over the nest 15 months.

Aug-08	5.37
Sep-08	4.94
Oct-08	3.66
Nov-08	1.07
Dec-08	0.09
Jan-09	0.03
Feb-09	0.24
Mar-09	0.38
Apr-09	0.74
May-09	1.28
Jun-09	1.43
Jul-09	2.10
Aug-09	1.48
Sep-09	1.29
Oct-09	0.18

"My best guess, which could easily be wrong, is that, consistent with futures prices, commodity prices will level off and cease to put direct upward pressure on headline inflation."

Commodity prices, especially the crude oil, collapsed.
She is a clueless bimbo who does and says what Crooks want people at the Fed to do and say. Fed is there to serve the Crooks and she is a reliable agent of the Crooks. The proof is in the pudding. Guess who dominate the ranks of the Crooks in America?
Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

"Core inflation has been better contained, but has still been running a bit higher than I would like. In the next few quarters, I wouldn't be surprised if it runs modestly higher, as businesses pass some of their higher energy and transportation costs on to customers.

"By early next year, however, I expect that, assuming commodity prices level off, core as well as headline inflation will moderate, as more slack in labor and product markets emerges."

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