Jas Jain Predicts S&P 500 below 500 by 2023

Market Update for 8/12/19

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Message of the US Treasury Bond Market and Fed Rate Cuts to Come -- Re: Fed Policy & Recessions
Date:	Mon, 12 Aug 2019 20:06:35 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

Message of the US Treasury Bond Market and Fed Rate Cuts to Come

That the Trump Global Depression is on track. The most important thing to know about the Donald and his son-in-law is that they are both born-and-bred financial fraudsters. My mantra to a small group of people has been: Donald, the Destroyer, Will Deliver!

My record in bond market investment is second to none in the world. Finally, the stock market will follow my long-term bearish forecast with S&P 500 below 500 by 2023.

Jas

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May 21, 2019

Fed Policy & Recessions

After the economy has been in a recovery for some years Federal Reserve starts a process of three-step strangle:

Step 1: Starts to raise the Fed Funds Rate because the economy is doing great and would continue to do great as far as the eye can see.

Step 2: Stops to raise the rates. Before the last two recessions this happened 9-16 month before the recessions began. The peak rate remains flat for several months.

Step 3: Starts cutting the rate. Before the last two recessions this happened 3-6 month before the recessions began. This is as close to Fed ringing the warning bells, or fire alarm for the stock market bulls to leave the casino as we can expect.

Where Are We Today?

Step 2 occurred in December 2018 when the last rate rise took place and Fed later announced that it would not raise the rates any time soon. How about Step 3 or when would Fed start cutting the rate?

"The market is pricing in about a 48% chance of a rate cut by September and a 73% chance of a move lower before the end of the year. In fact, traders see a 31% chance of two cuts before 2019 comes to an end."

So, based on history and market expectations of a rate cut Fed would ring the warning bells this year and the next recession would begin during the first half of 2020.

Another sure warning sign for a recession to come is that the stock market has peaked. I leave that to the reader. Trump Recession 2020 is a near certainty. We would be able to say bye-bye to the Donald in 2021.

Jas

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