Deflationary Depression Thesis - In Plain American

Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices Plunge 24% to a five-year low

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Subject:	Let Me Make My Deflationary Depression Thesis Very Clear In Plain American
Date:	Fri, 30 Jan 2015 08:34:17 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

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Let Me Make My Deflationary Depression Thesis Very Clear In Plain American

Communicating with born-and-bred American dopes is not easy because they are so used to dope dealers that pander to them and they have been brainwashed by a highly organized propaganda machine. I know, says a born-and-bred American dope no matter how ignorant of the subject he may be.

My thesis repeated many times over the past 16 years is as follows:

All the growth in the US economy since 1998 has been a direct result of borrow-and-consume. There are two sources of this ever-increasing consumption debt as a % of the GDP, the total household debt and the federal deficit spending. A house is a consumption item just like a piece of furniture, so clearly stated by Adam Smith 240 years ago.

Borrow-and-consume today means less ability to consume tomorrow. That means less future demand. And that would mean continued deflationary pressure.

"Printing Money" is a propaganda lie. Proof: over last past 6.5 years inflation has been steadily falling if one ignored the volatility and the noise. "Printing Money" has been at an unprecedented level.

The single most important variable in a financialized economy is debt.  Only during the depressions that debts are harmonized with the economic fundamentals with a good part of the private debt defaulted. The growth in the federal debt during the next recession simply can't be the same as during 2008-2014; hence, fiscal stimulus began under GW Bush is nearing its limits. We already have reached the limits of the monetary stimulus.

It is the debt, stupid!

Jas 

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From: george B
Subject: Re: Deflation In the Near Future (2016): A Picture Worth a Thousand Words
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2015 09:32:19 -0500
To: jas_jain

What about the argument that the US consumer is far healthier today than in 2008?  He has refinanced his house and saved $450+ per month.  Consumers are avoiding debt (I know, this only hastens deflation), and US corporations are lean, largely debt free, and enjoy huge cash reserves. 

I think you're right about some deflation, Jas, but this time I can't agree with the depression part of your argument.  I think we now enjoy good deflation, rather than than bad deflation.

Look like you have bought into the propaganda, George B. It is nearly impossible to escape propaganda in a country where brainwashing the populace is Job#1. The Age of Propaganda began in America long before you were born! You are screwed, my e-friend.

Nothing personal, merely the business of investigating the facts in the midst of all the lies.

Jas

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On Jan 30, 2015, at 8:08 AM, Jas Jain wrote:

Deflation In the Near Future (2016): A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

If you draw a trend-line on the attached graph it should go below zero in 2016. The worldwide deflationary depression during 2016-18 is on track. 5-Year Treasuries would yield negative, 10-Year below 1% and 30-Year below 1.5%

Scams would be hammered and long-term Treasuries would soar.

Jas

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