Stock Market vs. Long-Term Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Rates at a Glance
For quotes rather than graphs
US Treasury Rate Quotes

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Scams vs. Long-Term Treasury Bonds
Date:	Sun, 10 Nov 2013 11:43:09 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Scams vs. Long-Term Treasury Bonds 

For 52 weeks ending on Friday, 11/08/2013, NASDAQ-100 (NDX) and S&P 500 (SPX) are up 30.3% and 28.3%, respectively. Add 2.2% dividend yield and SPX total return is 30.5%. The total return on a 08/15/2039 long-term Treasury STRIPS is –23.5%. This I would think is a result of extreme bullishness in the Scam Market, fully confirmed by sentiment surveys, and bearishness on the long-term Treasuries.

 

The long-term Treasury rates are exactly where they were on 08/13/2010, i.e., 3.25 years ago. The total return on a 08/15/2039 long-term Treasury STRIPS since then is +20%. NDX is up 85% since then and total rerun on SPX is 75%. I think that we would see reversion to the mean over the coming years.

Jas

Kirk Here:  Make sure you read "SPY Sets Another Record High While ECRI's WLI Is Back Near Its 3-Year High"

US Stock Market at a Glance
-
Median Single-Family Home Prices Adjusted for Inflation