Stock Market Seasonality

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-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Scam Market Seasonality Since 2010
Date:	Sun, 17 Mar 2013 08:42:24 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Scam Market Seasonality Since 2010

I use a Scam Market index that is a weighted average of NDX and SPX to reflect my portfolio. Since the March 2009 low, NDX out-performed SPX, significantly, until September 2012, and has under-performed since, led mostly by AAPL. Please see the attached chart for clear evidence of seasonality, during 2010, 2011, and 2012, whereby the Scam Market made a new high in April that held for the next 5-9 months. There may after all be something to the adage: Sell In May and Go Away (to buy back in November). For the 3-year period since November 2009 very little gain was achieved during the May-Oct period and almost all the gain, some 50%, was achieved during Nov-Apr period.

I plan to load up my 36-Pack with January 2015 puts that are very cheap due to the lowest volatility in more than dozen years. All that would be needed is two 10-20% corrections by January 2015 to make good profits and a killing if Jul'07-Mar'09 were to repeat. A calculated risk—nothing ventured nothing gained.

The Buffet Scam shows very weird behavior in the long-term options market (by weird I mean extreme amount of bullishness in the Scam compared with S&P 500). I am betting against the Scam because Buffet is a bozo when it comes to the threats facing the US economy as well as the global economy over the next two years. Buffet has admitted publicly that his skin was saved in 2008 by the govt intervention. He thinks that the same would happen again and again, which I doubt very much.

Jas

Bear Versus Bull Phase -- Scam Market Seasonality Since 2010

I forgot to mention that since the primary bear market began in 2000 we have had a bear phase that lasted 1.5-2.5 years and a bull phase that has lasted 4.0-4.5 years. The seasonality that I mentioned seems to be only valid during the bull phase. Also, as the bull phase gets long in the tooth the YoY gains are lower and lower while in the bear phase the best is reserved for the last. The panics and greed have their own dynamics, needless to say.

The primary bear market has anything but ended.

Jas

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