March Reading

At KirkLindstrom.com

• Mar 8 David Darst Bear Market Check List Signals Bull Market Can Continue 
• Mar 5 S&P500 Price Adjusted for CPI Inflation: Real S&P500 Price History
• Mar 4 AAPL: Apple Price Gap Filled: Resistance And Support Graphs

At Seeking Alpha

• SPY And ECRI's WLI Move Lower Again While Q4-2012 GDP Revised To Positive 0.1% 
• SPY Near Record Highs As ECRI's WLI Continues Lower For A Second Week
• Is It Time To Buy Gold Via GLD?


•  DOW / Gold Ratio Still Low On Historical Basis 
•  Laszlo Birinyi Expects The S&P500 To Reach 1600 Before The Year Ends
•  SPY Hits Record High Despite Negative GDP Growth And A Possible Recession

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Steve Cohen & Raj Rajaratnam Insider Trading Cases

DOW / Gold Ratio Still Low On Historical Basis

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Insider Trading Cases Against Steve Cohen and Raj Rajaratnam
Date:	Thu, 21 Mar 2013 12:14:13 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Insider Trading Cases Against Steve Cohen and Raj Rajaratnam

"Not many Wall Street executives, let alone hedge funds, could write a $616 million check and remain solvent. But Steven A. Cohen and his fund, SAC Capital Advisors, have done exactly that, agreeing to pay that amount to settle two insider-trading lawsuits brought against it by the government."

"Sat 16 Mar 2013; SEC Fines SAC's Steve Cohen Millions but is Afraid to Say his Name Posted by Teri Buhl under Hedge Fund Fraud… What I found most appalling about this settlement is the SEC lays out dates, times, and conversations that Stevie Cohen has with his employee about the inside information and then he trades on it to avoid millions in losses. Except the SEC won't even directly name him in the lawsuit. Yep- they just call him portfolio manager A and add in one line at the beginning of the complaint that portfolio manager A is the founder and owner of SAC Capital."

Comment (my highlight): "March 18, 2013 at 7:05 am; Perhaps Voldemort would have been better than portfolio manager A? What does the US admin really think investors will do when they realise that their funds managers are just another set of crooks & fraudsters? God help the honest folk who work in these firms and have to compete with vindictive sycophants who have no scruples or respect for anything or anyone. It's sowing the seeds of disaster. http://www.teribuhl.com/2013/03/16/sec-gets-600-million-from-steve-cohen-but-is-afraid-to-say-his-name/

Steve Cohen has been among the top hedge fund managers for a long time and Raj Rajaratnam was not among the top 100; allegations against Cohen were made a lot earlier than against Rajaratnam; and the amount of money made from alleged fraud is lot larger in the case of Cohen than Rajaratnam....   Equality under the law is a frikin joke when it comes to large-scale financial fraud ($10M and above, mostly in hundreds of millions).

Poor Rajaratnam was operating in the wrong neighborhood; he didn't belong there and was encroaching on the turf controlled mostly ......  Mafia under a different cloak running an incredibly lucrative business.

Jas

Mon, Feb 4: Laszlo Birinyi Expects The S&P500 To Reach 1600 Before The Year Ends

Investor's Intelligence Survey: Percentage of Bears Near Lows

David Darst Bear Market Check List 
Signals Bull Market Can Continue

Gold and GLD Resistance and Support Levels

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	% of Bears Near Lows
Date:	Thu, 21 Mar 2013 10:56:20 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

% of Bears Near Lows

Please see the attached chart. Serious corrections have followed when % of bears was at this level or below.

Jas

See Kirk's Feb 27 II Investor's Intelligence Bull Bear Sentiment Survey Data and Chart

Stock Market Seasonality

• Laszlo Birinyi Expects The S&P500 To Reach 1600 Before The Year Ends
  
  
• Toni Sacconaghi Expects Dow Dog Hewlett-Packard To Nearly Double

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Scam Market Seasonality Since 2010
Date:	Sun, 17 Mar 2013 08:42:24 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

Scam Market Seasonality Since 2010

I use a Scam Market index that is a weighted average of NDX and SPX to reflect my portfolio. Since the March 2009 low, NDX out-performed SPX, significantly, until September 2012, and has under-performed since, led mostly by AAPL. Please see the attached chart for clear evidence of seasonality, during 2010, 2011, and 2012, whereby the Scam Market made a new high in April that held for the next 5-9 months. There may after all be something to the adage: Sell In May and Go Away (to buy back in November). For the 3-year period since November 2009 very little gain was achieved during the May-Oct period and almost all the gain, some 50%, was achieved during Nov-Apr period.

I plan to load up my 36-Pack with January 2015 puts that are very cheap due to the lowest volatility in more than dozen years. All that would be needed is two 10-20% corrections by January 2015 to make good profits and a killing if Jul'07-Mar'09 were to repeat. A calculated risk—nothing ventured nothing gained.

The Buffet Scam shows very weird behavior in the long-term options market (by weird I mean extreme amount of bullishness in the Scam compared with S&P 500). I am betting against the Scam because Buffet is a bozo when it comes to the threats facing the US economy as well as the global economy over the next two years. Buffet has admitted publicly that his skin was saved in 2008 by the govt intervention. He thinks that the same would happen again and again, which I doubt very much.

Jas

Bear Versus Bull Phase -- Scam Market Seasonality Since 2010

I forgot to mention that since the primary bear market began in 2000 we have had a bear phase that lasted 1.5-2.5 years and a bull phase that has lasted 4.0-4.5 years. The seasonality that I mentioned seems to be only valid during the bull phase. Also, as the bull phase gets long in the tooth the YoY gains are lower and lower while in the bear phase the best is reserved for the last. The panics and greed have their own dynamics, needless to say.

The primary bear market has anything but ended.

Jas

• David Darst Bear Market Check List Signals Bull Market Can Continue 
• S&P500 Price Adjusted for CPI Inflation: Real S&P500 Price History

Is It Time To Buy Gold Via GLD?

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Earnings Down From a Year Ago

Real S&P500 Price with Dividends Reinvested
Inflation Adjusted Returns

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Earnings Down From a Year Ago
Date:	Sat, 9 Mar 2013 13:48:05 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Earnings Down From a Year Ago

Based on the trailing 12-Month P/E from:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

 

Date	Trailing P/E	Trailing Earning
03/08/13	18.15	85.40	-1.2%
03/09/12	15.86	86.44

 

Yup, it is a good time to buy Scams and sell long-term USTs, say the market masters on Bull Marketing Entertainment Boob-tube. There is no place to go to but Scams to get a good return and Uncle Ben wants you to get into Scams. You can't trust Uncle Sam but you can trust Uncle Ben.

Faithful, it time for Havana. Oooooooom swahaaaa. Pour more melted butter into the fire. Oooooooom swahaaaa.

Jas

For more data, see

•  P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes Plus US Treasury Rates

Harry Dent Tactical ETF Gets The Ax (Last Year)

From

Aug 6, 2012: Harry Dent Tactical ETF Gets The Ax

After three years of dismal performance and lack of investor interest, Dent Tactical ETF (DENT), the brainchild of Harry Dent — founder of economic forecasting and research firm HS Dent — is shutting down Wednesday. AdvisorShares, best known for providing actively managed ETFs, is liquidating it — a little more than a month before its third birthday.

and

Aug 7, 2012: Tomorrow Is Last Day Of Trading For DENT

AdvisorShares recently announced the closing of the AdvisorShares Dent Tactical ETF (DENT). They decided to close the fund rather than pursue the previously planned reorganization of DENT into the AdvisorShares Meidell Tactical Advantage ETF (MATH). The last day of trading is tomorrow – August 8, 2012. I advise any remaining owners to dispose of their shares prior to delisting using a limit order.

Noah Hamman, CEO of AdvisorShares, said “We determined it was in the best interest of the shareholders to close DENT due to the amount of time required for the merger and its associated costs.”

DENT has been on ETF Deathwatch since May 2011 and is flagged by the ETF Field Guide for having liquidity concerns in three different measurements.

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Picture of Dent Scam While It Lasted
Date:	Sat, 9 Mar 2013 08:26:14 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Dope Dealers have staying power because dopes don't know their record and the media colludes in the cover up. Attached is the performance of DENT, a Scam "managed by Harry Dent that was closed due to poor performance. Nothing says more about born-and-bred American dopes than how good a living dope dealers make in America and how their numbers have multiplied. The System of the Crooks thrives because of the dope dealers. All Americans are addicted to dope; only the flavors they like vary.

Jas

Rise and Fall of AAPL - Formerly Apple Computer

Funny how I posted an article about Apple earlier today here:

• Mar 4, 2013 AAPL: Apple Price Gap Filled:
  Resistance And Support Graphs
  and
• April 12,2012  Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct?
  NO THEY WERE NOT!
  

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Rise and Fall of AAPL
Date:	Mon, 4 Mar 2013 14:54:38 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Rise and Fall of AAPL

Please see the attached chart of AAPL Scam for the past 14 months. The Scam is down a bit from where it was 14 months ago but long-term shareholders made 2% because of the dividend. We can be sure that Crooks and their agents cleaned out $30-40B, all the profit that the company made, during the same period including some Crooks who are running Apple. That is how the Scam Market works and why it exists—to feed the System of the Crooks. Let us see if Steve Jobs and Tim Cook can better John Chambers in serving the Crooks' interests.

 

Silly.con Valley is populated by a high % of morally blind people, its "economy," i.e., profligacy is built on fraud, and will sink on fraud just as the high tech homes of yester years, Detroit and Flint, MI, did. Enjoy the fraud while it lasts, all you silly cons!

Jas

Make sure you look at my second graph comparing Apple to Sony, HP (HPQ) and Dell Here.

• Current AAPL Charts and Quote
  and
  
• Mar 1, 2012 Apple's Market Cap Breaks $500B Barrier; Can It Keep This Where All Others Have Failed?

Warren Buffet Speculative Opportunity based on BRK-B to SPY Ratio

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Buffet Scam As a Scam Market Signal Offers Fantastic Speculative Opportunity
Date:	Mon, 4 Mar 2013 06:25:53 -0800
From:	Jas Jain <jas_jain

Buffet Scam As a Scam Market Signal Offers Fantastic Speculative Opportunity

Since Warren Buffet bought Gen Re in June 1998 his scam is more and more like a mutual fraud and has a very high long-term correlation with S&P 500, a proxy for the Scam Market. Buffet Scam, BRK-B, is up 6% relative to the SPY over the period, but because it has no dividend, the total return of S&P 500 has out-performed Buffet Scam by some 25% over the past 14.7 years. Amazingly, the ratio of BRK-B to SPY has been a great signal for the market trouble, i.e., serious decline, ahead. Please see the two attached graphs.

Here is a Summary table:

Week Of	BRK-B	SPY	BRK-B % SPY	VIX	Comment
06/15/98	54.1	85.42	63.334	21.61	Buffet Buys Gen Re
03/06/00	27.4	110.61	24.772	21.24	Scam Market High
09/30/02	48.76	65.96	73.924	39.46	Scam Market Low
07/16/07	72.85	136.3	53.448	16.95	Scam Market Near High
10/20/08	74.26	79.3	93.644	79.13	Scam Market Near Low
04/23/12	80.56	137.95	58.398	16.32	Buffet Out-Perform Means Trouble Ahead?
02/25/13	102.05	152.11	67.090	15.36

Long-term options, e.g., Jan 2015, provide fantastic opportunity to play this relationship. Please do your own research because I don't have the time to provide specific trades and the trades need to be managed based on the market moves and positions accumulated over time. A 200%+ gain during a serious market decline is doable via an arbitrage between BRK-B and SPY using long-term options. 
Jas

Kirk Here:  I think there are errors in Jas Jain's thinking in the above missive.  See the data and you can decide.

This chart shows the raw data for BRK.B and SPY that includes dividends reinvested from Jan. 1, 1998.  This table shows BRKB returns by year back to Jan 1 1999 and those for Vanguard's S&P500 index fund.  Clearly BRKB out performed. in both my graph and my table.