Jas Jain Predicts Obama 2nd Term

Ed Hyman & Bob Doll's Market Outlook for 2012

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	American Politics: Why Obama is likely to Get Re-Elected
Date:	Mon, 16 Jan 2012 12:57:04 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

American Politics: Why Obama is likely to Get Re-Elected

 

I put the chance of Obama's re-election between 60-70%, currently, but as the campaign progresses it good go even higher than 80%. Only Paul and Romney poll competitively against Obama, but Paul is extremely unlikely to get the Republican nomination and if does by some miracle his character would be destroyed between the nomination and the vote. Zionists, big supporters of the Federal Reserve and Israel, who have the most to lose by Ron Paul presidency, would make sure that he is not elected. Obama people would love to run against Newt with his heavy baggage. He is already helping Obama's re-election by his attacks on Romney. Santorum has a very narrow base in the general election even if the religious "Christian" conservatives coalesce behind him. With friends like Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh who needs enemies? These two "entertainers with shock effect," according to a conservative publisher, generate the most negative feeling amongst the rest of electorate. Rick Perry has already self-destruct and he would be out next.

 

Obama's re-election would be another gift of the Republican Party to America. His election in 2008 was the first gift of the Republican Party. For one, very bad fiscal, monetary, regulatory, and tax policies of GW Bush, Greenspan and Bernanke led to the predictable crisis of 2008. Second, by nominating John McCain, an old man without any charisma and no record to speak of other than a moderate bipartisan legislator, a la Bob Dole. Older a candidate more political baggage he carries and he is less in tune with the times in terms of attitudes that have changed dramatically over the past two decades. Rick Santorum, the youngest in the race for Republican nomination, is older than Obama and he is out of touch with the general attitudes despite his young age.

 

Brand Obama

The Reagan brand had a very different basis and was suitable for different times than Brand Obama. Obama is the least experienced man ever elected as the POTUS. There was very little to attack him in terms of failures of past polices and he was out of the spotlight until 2004. He has been very careful, for the most part, since then and most of his economic policies, especially the tax policies, are closer to Reagan and GW Bush! Obama-care is a minor issue for the economy. He even reappointed Bernanke, a GW Bush appointee, so as not to get any blame for the bad Fed policies that have continued. Clinton and Obama are the only presidents elected who were younger than 50 years since JFK. Gingrich, Paul and Romney are at least 14 years older than Obama and have lot more of past history, a big negative when it comes to the attack ads that do work. Obama's race also shields him against certain types of attacks. While Ran Paul, an old white Christian man, can be attacked as an anti-Semite, bigot, extremist, racist, you name it, without any repercussions to the attacker as long as they come from non-candidates. In this respect America of today is a very unfair and unequal country.

 

No Matter Who Wins in 2012 the Taxes Would Go Up and the Spending Would Go Down

That is assuming that Ron Paul cannot win. Obama, with big help from Republicans, has milked the tax cuts and spending increases to the max, to increase his re-election chances, and there is nowhere to go but in the opposite directions beginning in 2013. The ratings agencies would force the hands of the politicians. The lowest taxes and highest spending since the end of the WW II, as % of the GDP, cannot last for long and we are at the end of the rope. Republicans better hope that their guy doesn't win the presidency because they don't want to be known as the party of tax hikes. Romney, more of a practical man than an ideologue like Newt Gingrich, would agree to tax increases as the only prudent course because there is only so much he would be able to do in terms of spending cuts. 10% of the GDP is lot in terms of spending cuts to balance the budget. Even with tax increases and spending cuts, to the tune of 3-4% of the GDP each, can't balance the budget because the economy would be knocked into a recession if the budget deficit were reduced below 6-7% of the GDP. The fix is in and Americans would have to live with higher taxes, govt spending cuts at all levels, and a prolonged recession to boot. That is what happens when a country lives beyond its means for too long.  Stupid people never take preventative actions in time to avoid disasters. Stupid people have led America because these are the only kind of people that can garner power under the current system. The vote made me do it!

Jas

Byron Wien's 14 Bullish Predictions for 2012