Index of Small Business Optimism; Depression Ahead Says Jas Jain

Jas Jain is still predicting we fall into a depression.

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	The Most Important LEADING Index of the US Economy Shows Continuous Downturn
Date:	Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:14:16 -0700
From:	Jas Jain

The Most Important LEADING Index of the US Economy Shows Continuous Downturn

“The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 1.6 points in March to 81.0 (1986=100), still the second lowest reading in the 35 year history of the NFIB survey (80.1 is the low, reached in 1980Q2). Two of the Index components improved and 8 declined. There we no components that delivered a strong signal of improvement, that will have to wait for the April survey.”

When this index falls below 80.0, and remain below that level for three months, the probability that the US has entered a depression is very high. Of all segments—BIG Business, Consumers, and small business—small business does the worst during a prolonged depression and the BIG Business, headed by crooks that control the Fed and the US government, does the best for the simple reason that the US government stands ready to help the BIG Business as much as it can without widespread public revolt (riots are OK!)). If born-and-bred American dopes want change they would need a Million Gunmen March on New York City!! The lazy exercise of a vote for Barack “No Change” Obama wouldn’t do it.

Rogue economists never mention this index in their outlook.

Jas

Contrast this with ECRI which says otherwise.

Friday, April 03, 2009
Upturn in ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead
Today the Economic Cycle Research Institute, or ECRI an independent forecasting group based in New York, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) moved hither and its growth rate rose to a 23-week high signaling a turn in the business cycle is on their radar.

The WLI and its growth rate are designed to predict future turning points in the business cycle (recessions and recoveries.)

• More about ECRI
• Discuss the data with Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, in our facebook forum "ECRI - Economic Cycle Research Institute." If you are not already a member, then you may need to request invitation to "Investing for the Long Term" on Facebook.

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