Jas Jain Interest Rate Prediction

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-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	"The #1 Problem For Businesses Is Weak Consumer Demand"
Date:	Mon, 24 Feb 2014 04:22:18 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

"The #1 Problem For Businesses Is Weak Consumer Demand"

As per the finance chiefs of world's largest corporations. Dah. Henry Ford recognized this as the #1 problem for capitalists more than a hundred years ago. Debt financed consumption demand is basically borrowing from the future demand.

The weak consumer demand is the primary driver of falling inflation and it would continue to fall until it is safely in the negative territory in all the advanced economies and even China would have outright deflation because of the over capacity.

xxxxx   The turning point in inflation/deflation is coming within the next three years, but most likely in 15 months. The US Treasuries are going to make new highs in price and new lows in yield.

Jas

US Treasury Rate Quotes

Timer Digest 2013 Bond Timer of the Year


Long Term Results that Speak for Themselves
Since 9/30/98 inception, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 522%
vs. the DJIA UP only 106%, S&P500 UP only 139% and NASDAQ UP only 147%
That is 9.6% Compound Annual Return vs. 4.6% for the S&P500
(All through 12/31/13)
(More Info, Testimonials & Portfolio Returns)

Real Early Spring

Cisco Should Pay Much More Than $28 To Buyout Finisar

Current & Historical US Treasury Rates And Yields for 10 & 30 Year Bonds

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	Real Early Spring
Date:	Sun, 23 Feb 2014 07:56:07 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

Real Early Spring

We didn't have much of the winter, thus far, especially during Dec-Feb, and the result is very early spring as you can see the blooms coming out on one of my sakura trees. This is 2-3 weeks earlier than other normal years.

We are in an extreme draught region of California, which is in a severe draught this year.

Jas

(FYI: It is spelled "drought" Jas.... )

• Current Series I Bond Rates  
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Jain Recession Model: 90% Chance For the US Recession

Feb 3 SPY 4% Off Record High While ECRI's WLI Near 193 Week High

-------- Original Message --------

Subject:	90% Chance For the US Recession to Begin During 2014Q2-2015Q1
Date:	Sun, 2 Feb 2014 08:23:54 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

 

90% Chance For the US Recession to Begin During 2014Q2-2015Q1

Q: Have Bernanke, Krugman and Yellen predicted any recession, in their career, before it happened?

A. N-O-NO.

Q: Have Bernanke, Krugman and Yellen predicted recoveries before they happened?

A: YES, always.

Q: Do they predict that recovery would continue for years, at least the next three years, with a growth above 2%?

A: All the time.

Q: Does Wall Street ever predict that an earnings decline of 35-90% could happen within the next two years?

A: Never.

Q: Does it happen?

A: Yes, with a fair amount or regularity (pl. see the attached graph).

Any honest person would call such behavior purposely misleading and fraudulent, no? They remain oblivious to the business cycle despite its permanence. Economists and Wall Street commit "periodic," or cyclical fraud, very predictably.

Q: Who have the best record at predicting recessions?

A: Financial markets, most notably, commodities, the Scam Market and the US Treasury markets, e.g., the yield-curve inversion.

I have developed a methodology of characterizing the business cycle using two financial market indicators, S&P500 and US Treasury bond futures. Based on the attached graph I am predicting that a US recession is very likely, close to 90% chance, to begin during 2014Q2-2015Q1 with most likely date being September 2014. This should coincide with earnings declines during 2015-16. I also expect the coming recession to be much more severe than the last one and S&P 500 to make a new low.

Enjoy the Super Bowl! The next one would most likely be played during a recession. Go Broncos!!

Jas

NFL Super Bowl XLVIII
Sunday, February 2, 3:30 PM
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Final Score

• Seattle Seahawks 43
• Denver Broncos 8

Key Jas Jain Articles

• =>Bear Market Model

Jan 31 Watch the Red Lines: Dow, NASDAQ & S&P500 Resistance and Support
Jan 23 Gold and GLD Resistance and Support Levels Three Key Charts to watch
Jan 18 Jim Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance 
Jan 15 Median Single-Family Home Prices Adjusted for Inflation